Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Nov 7/07 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Corn:

Monday began with our weekly export inspection report showing 56.7 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export, up from 45.7 the week prior. Over our strong four week average, over a year ago of 52.7 and our highest weekly inspection number of 2007. It tells us that last week's small export sales weekly report was an aberration and business was going to surge back particularly out of Asia. Monday's crop progress report put harvest at 86% complete vs.. 79 a year ago and five year average of 80%. The harvest is a non-issue now as it all comes down to the size of the crop and our next look at that comes Friday at 7:30a Central Time when our monthly USDA crop report comes out. Early talk has a number slightly lower than the October report number of 13.318 b.b. Bio-genetic seeds always find a way to come up with better than expected yields. On Friday's report I said crude oil looks to push near $100. per barrel and that should push March corn up to 4.04. After hitting a low of 3.89 Monday, we pushed to 4.044 today right on target. It does not mean we can not trade higher but that is contingent on crude climbing further. I still look for a November high to give way to a late November early December correction. Support on March lies at 3.92. A close over 4.04 and we look to test 4.10 then 4.20.

Beans:

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 22.1 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, down from 33 the week prior and 40 a year ago. Recent rains in Brazil as planting of their bean crop winds down, may have some Asian buyers like China taking one step back from there recent buying surge. WXRISK.COM the weather site sees December through march as potentially very hot and drier in South America on the La-Nina front. This is Brazil's big growing period for beans; we will watch weather there closely. Monday's crop progress report put bean harvest at 92% complete and consider done by the trade. Friday's crop report has some in the trade looking for a slight increase in production over the October report of 2.598 b.b. I look at unchanged to down 8 m.b. but no big surprises are expected. On Friday I said expect a push to near $100. crude pulling beans up to not higher this week than 10.85 on March. We had a low Monday of 1.023 and pushed 10.60 into today's opening range. With crude within 3.00 of the magic $100. resistance we may yet push near 10.85. Like corn, I called for beans too, have new November highs over October and still feel crude oil. Metals can see a late November into December correction pulling corn and beans lower with it.

Wheat:

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 29.4 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export, off from 31.3 the week prior and just under the four week average of 31 m.b. It is consistent with our six week slow down in demand as foreign importers see a price top in and buy only as needed and await spring harvest of our winter crops to fill inventory. Monday's crop condition showed 53% of our crop is in good to excellent condition down 2% from the week prior and 6% under a year ago. States suffering from lack of rain at early emergence is Texas at 23% G-E and Kansas 55% G-E vs.. 62 the week prior. These are the worst of key producers. Too early to worry about conditions as we are still focused on demand driving prices. On Friday after hitting our long term downside goal of 8.00 on March, I said look for a short covering rally with March, I said look for a short covering rally with March resistance at 8.35 Monday and 8.30 Tuesday and Wednesday and to sell short again over 8.20. We hit 8.26 today. Hold short unless a close over 8.30 occurs.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

www.alaron.com

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