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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Nov 6/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Jan beans closed 4 ¼ higher after a lower open on Monday. Traders say a rally in wheat helped support the Bean complex and volatile Crude oil led to choppy trade. Early selling pressure stemmed from profit-taking and a big harvest weekend in the U.S. Midwest. Scattered commercial hedge pressure weighed on market. USDA reported weekly export inspections of U.S. soybeans at 22.1 million bushels, within a range of trade estimates for 20 million to 25 million. After the close yesterday the USDA released weekly crop progress report shows soybean harvest 92% complete vs. 84% a week ago. This is above traders expectations of 88 to 90 percent complete. Funds bought an estimated 2,500 Soybeans, sold 1000 Oil bought, 1,500 Meal. Volume was light on Monday 79,559 Soybean futures, 28,055 Oil and 39,994 Meal traded. Early opening calls are higher supported by surging crude oil prices (into new highs again this morning) rallying gold and another new low in the US dollar. Traders say Wednesday begins the Goldman Roll. Brazil grain analyst Celeres estimates Brazil Soybean planting at 27% complete vs. 14% last week and 32% last year. They also estimate the Brazilian farmer has sold 30% of the 2007/08 crop vs. 22% last year and an average for this time of year of 28%. Oil world estimates China is likely to further increase purchases of oilseeds and vegetable oils in the near future following recent heavy buying of Soybean Oil. They also say EU rapeseed plantings are likely to fall following the EU’s decision to suspend its restrictions on set-aside land. China’s consumer price index rose by 6.2% in September after August’s record high of 6.5%. Ocean freight rates for dry commodities to major Asian routes dropped 7% off their record high on Tuesday. Overnight Chinese Meal, Oil and Soybeans closed higher. Malaysian palm oil traded at new record highs overnight. Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 10 to 15 cents higher, Oil .40 to .50 higher, Meal $ 2.00 to $5.00 higher. Top News -- A slight raise in forecast for Brazil soybean crop to 63.1 mln mt vs October's 63.0 mln mt forecast by private analyst Celeres, that would be a 7% rise from 2006/07 crop -- Private analyst Celeres estimates the 07/08 Brazilian soybean crop is now 27% seeded -- Starting Nov 9th, CME Group mini-size grain futures will trade from 6:30 p.m. to 6 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. to 1:45 p.m. Central time Sunday through Friday. -- Friday is USDA's Crop Production & World Ag Supply/Demand report. -- Soybean harvest is 92% complete according to the USDA's Monday crop progress report, that's ahead of last year's 90% and long term average of 90% complete. -- Monday's Soybeans Export Inspections: 22.105 mln mt; expected 22.5 mln mt -- Gov sources note South Korea has purchased 21k tons of soybeans from China, shipment to arrive by Dec 21st - average price around $625/ton -- Dalian Soybean May futures traded 300,000 contracts finishing 43 yuan/mt higher at 4462 yuan/mt; active Soymeal futures were up 34 yuan/mt to 3319 yuan/mt; May Soyoil futures up sharply 96 yuan/mt to 9016 yuan/mt after Malaysian palm oil futures hit new record high prices. -- Malaysian Palm finished at record high of $885.17/mt, a rise of 1% from prior day, as traders await price forecast from industry players at oilseed outlook conference scheduled for Thursday -- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 56,898; Pit Vol. 18,581; Open Interest Change: +1,755 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. The Corn Belt looks dry today and Wednesday. -- Outside markets. Energy: Dec crude +$2.26/bbl to $96.21/bbl, setting new high at 96.44 in morning electronic session, products follow suit ; Gold $12.30 higher & Silver: up 37c to $15.16; US $ lower vs Euro, slightly higher vs Yen basis Dec futures. Cash Markets --CIF Soybeans steady. Nov. +32F to +39F, Dec. +43 to +50, Jan. +50 to +55, Feb. +35 to +42, Mar. +38 to +43, Apr. +37 to +40, May +37 to +40, J/J +35 to +45. To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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