Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Nov 2/07 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Corn:

Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 635 t.m.t. of corn was sold last week down from the 7 proceeding weeks of 1.5, 1.8, 2.3, 1.1, 1.6, 2.0 and 1.0 m.m.t. Asian sales were soft at 350 t.m.t. It is an off week from our recent bullish pattern and that occurs every so often when Asian markets take a breather and this was one. Demand over all will remain a positive fundamental. Corn continues to shadow beans and beans continue to follow crude oil and the dollar index lead. Next week I look for corn to continue to be mainly influenced by crude oil as crude oil drags corn based ethanol along and funds seen determined to push $100. crude. Corn also will watch the dollar index decline to insure the exchange rate remains favorable for foreign importers to buy U.S. corn, but that crude high in November pulling corn up to not higher than 4.04 basis March should be a high of the fall rally and look for a late November into December sell off on year end profit taking and book balancing by funds pulling crude, metals, corn, and beans lower. March support lies at 3.80 through Wednesday with 3.90 resistance today then 4.04. If you do not have a full service account at Alaron and want to use me as your broker or manage your account call: 800-563-9510 or email me at thannagan@alaron.com.

Beans.

Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 740 t.m.t. of beans were sold last week up 60% from the week prior and 22% over our four week average. China was in for 280 t.m.t. vs.. 70 the week prior. Even with higher prices here we continue to see hedge buying by China and others of U.S. beans incase South American beans continue to run into foul weather. Late September and through October 25th was generally hot and drier than normal over much of Brazil until recent rains helped out but wxrisk.com the weather site sees a return to much hotter and drier conditions next week. Like corn beans too determine its daily direction based on crude oil, dollar index and metals in that order of importance. We do have one grain fundamental to add to our daily trading psychology and that is the daily news on what next Friday's USDA crop report will show for corn and bean production. November will give us a new high on beans for the year as crude flirts with $100. per barrel but the November high gives way to a break into December. The November high should not exceed 10.85 basis March. The December correction could pull us back to 9.80 to 9.55 area at which point continue to load up on long March futures for January through March rally to buy acres.

Wheat.

As expected, wheat export sales came in lower at 180 t.m.t. sold last week down 67% from the week prior and 82% below our four week average. It pretty much confirms what I have been saying since early October. The panic buying and over booking is over and only hand to mouth as needed buying will occur as new winter crop seeding increase suggest low world inventories will grow sharply come late spring when harvest begins. Of course Mother Nature will determine that. We hit our goal of filling the gap to 8.00 basis March. Fundamentals have not changed on demand it is still not a bullish factor and new crops seeded remain unthreatened. That could turn things bullish again if changes in weather on early emerging winter wheat occurs so we turn to wxrisk.com daily for winter wheat growing regions world wide. Our break from October 1st to October 31st of 1.50 completes our goal but the market opens for opportunity everyday so now what? Unless something enters that is not there now we should expect new lows with our 7.90 March support taken out. We are due for short covering profit taking. March has resistance at 8.35 Monday and 8.30 Tuesday and Wednesday. If we push up to 8.15 to 8.30 go short with a new November low not to be lower than 7.35.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

www.alaron.com

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