Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - Oct 12/07 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Demand for all meats at the consumer level for January-August was up but broilers. Beef demand was up 0.8 percent, pork up 1.9 percent, turkey up 3.2 percent but broilers were down 1.9 percent. The demand for both live fed cattle and live hogs showed strong growth for the first eight months of 2007. Live fed cattle demand was up 3.8 percent and live hog demand was up 3.3 percent. The strong increase for live fed cattle demand came from both domestic and export demand growth.

The negotiated live fed cattle sales for the week ending October 6 was a modest 91 thousand head compared to 214 thousand head a week earlier and 127 thousand head a year earlier. With the relative tight fed cattle supplies, cattle feeders are in a strong competitive position but packers are already looking at red ink, therefore wholesale beef prices will need to be pushed higher to get much increase in fed cattle prices.

Feeder cattle and calves at Oklahoma City this week were $3-5 per cwt lower than a week earlier in fact, there were instances of $6-7 per cwt lower on fleshy unweaned calves. The price range for medium and large frame Number one steers this week at Oklahoma City were: 400-500 pounds $123-$138 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $111-$124.25 per cwt, 600-700-pound calves $103-$116.50 per cwt, 700-750-pound calves $103-$106.75 per cwt, 600-700 pound yearlings $114-$119.50 per cwt, 700-800 pounds $111-$115 per cwt and 800-1,000 pounds $102.25-$110.50 per cwt.

Cow head replacement prices continue to show a modest premium to slaughter cow prices. The per head prices for cows pre-tested for bangs, pregnancy and age were: two-three years old, bred five-seven months, average quality $900-$935 per head, two-three years old, bred three-five months, high quality $950-$960 per head. Five-six years old, 1,000-1,300 pounds, bred two-six months, average quality $835-935 per head. Five-six years old, 1,000-1,300 pounds, bred three-five months, high quality $960-$1,060 per head.

Wholesale beef prices this Friday morning showed Choice beef at $143.48 per cwt down $2.25 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef prices were down $1.89 per cwt at $133.93 per cwt.

The weighted average price for live fed cattle for the five-market area through Thursday was $88.95 per cwt down $1.80 per cwt from a week earlier. Weighted average price for carcass priced cattle for the five-market area through Thursday at $139.75 per cwt was down $4.45 per cwt from seven days earlier.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was 639 thousand head, up 2.9 percent from a year earlier.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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