Small Changes in Canadian Crop Outlook

OTTAWA - Oct 4/07 - SNS -- Statistics Canada surprises some market participants by modestly increasing the estimated size of this year's wheat harvest from 20.322 million metric tons (MT) In July to 20.641 million MT in its latest crop report.

The only other major crop to experience an upward revision in estimated output versus the July predictions was field peas, with the projected harvest rising from 2.953 to 3.024 million MT.

The July estimate was based on yield prospects at that time, while the latest forecasts were based on surveys conducted between September 4 and 11, a time when the harvest was half complete in western Canada.

"The most progress reported in southern areas," Statistics Canada said, "In many central and northern regions, the harvest has been delayed by cool, wet conditions. In Quebec and Ontario, uneven distribution of precipitation has continued to take a toll on field crops. Nevertheless, field corn production is still estimated to hit record levels in both provinces, the result of above-average harvested areas. Soybean production is expected to decline."

         Canada Crop Production Summary
             (000 metric tons)

                   Final      July      Sept    Annual
                    2006      2007      2007    Change
Spring wheat      18,617    14,099    14,318    -23.1
Durum wheat        3,346     3,549     3,614      8.0
Winter wheat       3,302     2,675     2,709    -18.0
 Total wheat      25,265    20,322    20,641    -18.3
Barley             9,573    11,848    11,822     23.5
Grain corn         8,990    10,573    10,555     17.4
Oats               3,852     5,087     5,009     30.0
Canola             9,000     9,242     8,864     -1.5
Soybeans           3,466     2,848     2,785    -19.6
Flaxseed             989       642       625    -36.8
Dry field peas     2,520     2,953     3,024     20.0
Dry beans            372       287       257    -31.0