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Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Sep 19/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. The corn market closed unchanged on Tuesday after the market sold off earlier in the session. The December contract sold off almost 8 cents only to rebound 10 cents and then close off the highs. Traders said nothing has changed in the corn market as huge exports are competing with a huge US crop. Any rally will be sold by traders because of the huge US crop and any break will be supported by commercial accounts. Cash traders said that basis levels will be under pressure, especially in the heart of the Midwest because of harvest pressure. Traders expect the USDA to raise its crop expectations with its next report which is weighing on corn futures. We are still hearing talk out of China that they are going to limit their exports to help domestic prices, but nothing official, and as we have learned in the past, it is sometimes difficult to believe the information coming out of China. Volume was light/moderate yesterday and funds were net sellers of only 1,000 by the end of the session. eCBOT market was a little lower overnight on the back of the sell off in wheat. There was very little new information out overnight except Taiwan tendering for 35,000 mt of US corn and India announcing its wheat's stocks are good and they should be covered for the next 10-12 months. Wheat is the leader of the grain complex and corn should follow. Traders starting to look at wheat in a negative light after yesterday's positive news unable to rally the market and the news out of India this morning. There is a lot of traders that are long wheat and short corn, so if they decide to flee that trade, it could help support corn. Corn is in the middle of harvest and will feel the pressure from farmer selling, but exports remain strong and commercials seem to be there every time there is a break. We expect the corn market to open lower and it will probably take its lead from the wheat market. A big sell off in the wheat market will drag the rest of the grain complex with it, but probably not nearly as bad. The price difference in wheat to corn is so huge wheat could break $1-$2 and corn could break 20-30 cents. Many traders we have talked to today think we could see a very down day in wheat today, so corn will follow. eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZCZ7 350^0 -2^2 353^6 350^0 ZCH8 367^4 -1^4 370^4 367^0 ZCK8 378^0 -1^0 380^0 378^0 ZCN8 386^4 -2^0 389^6 386^4 Early Opening Calls: 2 to 3c lower Top News -- Taiwan tendering for 35,000 mt. US Corn and 10,000 Soybeans for Oct/Nov. -- India is soon largely expected to double their required ethanol blend in domestic gasoline from 5% to 10% - this increase is expected to be met domestically and will come from the country's primary ethanol feedstock of sugarcane, acc. to gov sources -- AIG Analyst: "Several billion more" dollars headed into commodity funds; 2Q 2007 commodity index investment pegged at $120 billion -- S Africa Net Yellow Corn Imports: 14,173 mt through Sept 14. Imports pegged at 16,739, while exports 2,566 mt through Sept 14 -- S Africa Net White Corn Imports: 7,154 mt through Sept 14 -- Fed's FOMC lowers Fed Funds Target Rate 50 bps to 4.75% from 5.25% -- Fed's FOMC lowers Discount Target Rate 50 bps to 5.75% from 6.25% -- The Brazilian real rose to 1.8730 after the Fed cuts rates, up 13.9% for 2007. -- Dalian Corn futures lower in overnight trade -- eCBOT Vol: 104,485; Pit Vol.: 24,818; Open Interest change: +3,875 -- Weather: Above Normal Temps. Above Normal Precip. The Corn Belt may see some isolated light showers today. -- Outside markets. Energy complex higher; Gold & Silver: higher; US $ slightly higher vs. Euro & Yen Cash Markets --CIF Corn up 1 to 3. LH Sept. +42 to +48,Oct. +51 to +54, Nov. +53 to +58, Dec. +53 to +60, Jan. +43 to +?? J/F/M +45 to +48 If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations, contact me directly. Jim Riley Linn Group 877-787-6278 jriley@linngroup.com www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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