Solid Drop in Aussie Pulse Forecast

VANCOUVER - Sep 18/07 - SNS -- Pulse production levels in Australia are looking significantly smaller than initially forecast, with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) cutting total output from an estimated 1.97 million metric tons (MT) in July to a forecast 1.55 million MT.

Most of the 21.7% drop in forecast production was accounted for by lupins and field peas. This year's lentil and fababean crops are also expected to shrink from initial estimates; while Australia expects a larger chickpea crop than initially forecast.

September rainfall to date has also been below average in most states, with the exception of parts of Queensland and parts of southern Western Australia. The dry conditions have resulted in a downward revision of forecast winter crop production as the yield potential of most crops has declined rapidly over the past month.

ABARE said, "Following one of the best starts to the winter cropping season in a number of years, conditions across much of Victoria over the past month have deteriorated, following below to very much below average August rainfall. However, the good start to the season resulted in good subsoil moisture that has prevented significant yield penalties so far in most regions. Light September rainfall to date has also provided some relief for crops."

Most of Queensland's cropping regions recorded above average rainfall during August, with the exception of central Queensland, which received average rainfall. Further rainfall was received in some areas in early September. This has significantly improved yield potential in most regions, especially for late planted crops, with the exception of some areas in the south west of the state's cropping regions, where the rainfall was too late to improve prospects.

Total winter rainfall across the Western Australian grains belt has been below average. However, crop prospects remain in a better position than in the previous year. While winter rainfall has been below average, conditions in the Esperance and Great Southern regions have been better than in the northern part of the grains belt. In early September, good rainfall was received across the majority of the grains belt, which helped stabilize current yield potential.

After a promising start to the winter cropping season, prospects in South Australia declined rapidly throughout August and September. Late August was defined by lack of rain, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds, which resulted in crops losing significant yield potential in most districts as soil moisture reserves declined.

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