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USDA Estimates Surprise Trade
CHICAGO - Sep 12/07 - SNS -- Lighter trading activity was noted on international agricultural commodity markets overnight, with many participants eager to see the latest USDA crop production estimates for short term price direction.
The USDA surprised traders by reducing the forecast size of this year's crop from its August estimate. Surveys of traders prior to today's crop production estimates showed they expected the USDA to reduce output from 2.625 to 2.649 billion bushels, with guesses ranging between 2.581 and 2.74 billion. Instead, the USDA pegged the prospective harvest at 2.62 billion bushels, down 18% from last year's record high.
Corn production is forecast at 13.3 billion bushels, up 2% from last month and 26% above 2006. This is bigger than expected by most traders. Surveys prior to the USDA report revealed they were looking for the USDA to boost forecast output from 13.054 billion to 13.123 billion bushels, with guesses ranging between 12.767 and 13.416 billion.
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