Linn Group Morning Soybean Comment

CHICAGO - Sep 12/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.

Soybeans ended up marginally higher on Tuesday up 2 ½ cents in the November
contract, ahead of today’s widely anticipated Crop production report. Trade
was relatively quiet traders say as the market opened slightly lower on
ideas that the USDA might raise its US soybean production estimate on
Wednesday. Wheat led the soybean market higher into the close as wheat
closed near limit up in all months. Traders say with another new high close
in wheat there is no indication of that market peaking yet and the soaring
prices could continue. Volume on Tuesday was heavy soybeans traded 101,914
contracts, meal, 35,060 and oil 38,805.

Today the USDA released the monthly crop production report showing Soybean
production is forecast at 2.62 billion bushels, down
slightly from the August forecast and down 18 percent from last year's
record high.  Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to
average 41.4 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 1.3
bushels from last year. World 07/08 Soybeans Carryout: 50.35 mmt; Aug Rpt
51.63 mmt. Traders indicate that with today’s report behind us the higher
trade could trigger buying and to brace for a volatile session. Chinese food
inflation is up 18.2% and China bean imports for Aug have dropped slightly.
Estimates are that the imports will be lower for Sep and Oct but this should
hurt domestic stockpiles so analysts believe imports will have to grow
again.  Overnight Chinese soybean futures closed higher, meal and oil lower.
Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher and soybean oil extended gains in
Asian trade.

Post Report Opening Calls: Beans 3 to 5c higher; Meal $1-2 higher; Oil 40 to
50c higher

Top News

**US Sept Soybean 07/08 Carryout: .215 bln bu. ; est. 0.22; Aug Rpt 0.220

**US Sept Soybean 06/07 Carryout: .555 bln bu. ; est. 0.56; Aug Rpt 0.575

**US Sept Soybean 07/08 Crop Prod: 2.619 bln bu.; est. 2.65 bln bu. Aug Rpt
2.625

**US Sept Soybean 07/08 Yield: 41.4 bu/ac; est. 41.9 bu/ac; Aug Rpt 41.5
bu/ac

**US Sept Soymeal 07/08 Carryout: 300k tons ; Aug Rpt 300,000

**US Sept Soyoil 07/08 Carryout: 1.735 bln lbs. ; Aug Rpt 2.255

**World 07/08 Soybeans Carryout: 50.35 mmt; Aug Rpt 51.63

**World 07/08 Soyoil Carryout: 2.44 mmt; Aug Rpt 2.42

**World 07/08 Soymeal Carryout: 5.70 mmt; Aug Rpt 5.38

**Sept China 07/08 Soybean Output:  15.2 mmt; Aug Rpt 15.2

**Sept Brazil 07/08 Soybean Output:  61.0 mmt; Aug Rpt 61.0

**Sept Argentina 07/08 Soybean Output:  47.0 mmt; Aug Rpt 47.0

-- Taiwan passed on tender for 29,000 mt. US Corn ans 16,000 mt. Soybeans
for Oct/Nov.

-- USDA Ag Secretary Johanns says acreage in the CRP 10 year program might
be released. He said a decision would come in 60 to 90 days.

-- 07/08 Brazlian marketing year soybean sales pegged at 21% by private
analyst Celeres

-- Dalian Soybean futures higher; soymeal & soyoil lower in overnight trade.

-- Malaysian Palm futures higher on firm soyoil & meal trade

-- CBOT Deliveries: Soybeans  1,116; Oil  821; Meal 378

-- eCBOT Vol. 68,958; Pit Vol. 27,213; Open Interest Change: -77

-- Weather: Normal to Above Temps. Below Normal Precip. The Corn Belt looks
dry today and Thursday.

-- Outside markets. Energy complex higher; Gold & Silver: both lower; US $
lower vs Yen & record low vs Euro.

Cash Markets

-- CIF Soybeans  up 1 to 5. Sept. +18 to +??, LH Sept. +20 to +28, Oct. +31
to +36, Nov. +43 to +52, Dec. +40 to +44, Jan. +45 to +52, Feb. +25, Mar.
+25 to +35



To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly

Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.