U.S. Domestic Meat Output to Slip

WASHINGTON - Sep 12/07 - SNS -- The forecast for total 2007 U.S. meat production is reduced slightly as lower beef and pork output more than offset gains in turkey production, according to the latest forecasts by the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Forecast beef and pork production for the second half of the year is lowered as cattle and hog marketings are smaller than previously expected. Hatchery data indicate higher turkey output. For 2008, total meat production is raised primarily due to increased pork output. Increased live hog imports boost pork output across all quarters. Beef production for 2008 is raised fractionally due to cattle marketings being shifted from this year into next. Poultry meat production forecasts for 2008 are unchanged.

Forecast 2007 meat exports are raised because estimated second quarter beef and broiler meat exports were higher than expected. Forecast pork exports for 2007 are raised as weaker second quarter shipments are expected to be more than offset by stronger fourth quarter shipments, mainly to China. Forecast pork exports for 2008 are raised slightly also reflecting expected gains in shipments to China. Forecast 2007 beef imports are reduced slightly on stronger domestic cow slaughter. Pork import forecasts for 2007 and 2008 are raised slightly.

Forecasts for 2007 and 2008 cattle prices are increased as current prices remain firm and cattle supplies are expected to be tight through next year. Forecast hog prices for the third quarter of 2007 are reduced slightly. Forecast broiler, turkey, and egg prices are increased slightly for the third quarter of 2007.

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