USDA Cuts Soybean Crop Forecast

WASHINGTON - Sep 12/07 - SNS -- The USDA surprised traders by reducing the forecast size of this year's crop from its August estimate. Surveys of traders prior to today's crop production estimates showed they expected the USDA to reduce output from 2.625 to 2.649 billion bushels, with guesses ranging between 2.581 and 2.74 billion.

Instead, the USDA pegged the prospective harvest at 2.62 billion bushels, down 18% from last year's record high. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.4 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 1.3 bushels from last year.

Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower across the central Corn Belt, the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast. Hot, dry conditions contributed to most of the decline, especially in Kentucky and Tennessee, down 8 bushels and 9 bushels from last month, respectively. However, yields increased from the August 1 forecast in the northern Great Plains and northwestern Corn Belt, as beneficial rains fell during the month of August.

Area for harvest is forecast at 63.3 million acres, a decrease of 20,000 acres from August and down 15% from last year's record high. The September objective yield pod counts are down slightly from the final 2006 survey results, despite pod counts being higher or unchanged in 5 of the 7 major soybean producing States. Hot, dry weather across southern Illinois and Missouri hindered pod setting and development in those two States. By the end of August, 96% of the U.S. crop was at or beyond the pod setting stage, equal to last year but 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. As of September 2, fourteen% of the acreage was dropping leaves or beyond, 2 points ahead of 2006 and 3 points ahead of normal.

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