Smaller Special Crop Supply in Canada

VANCOUVER - Aug 31/07 - SNS -- Canadian specialty crop production looks to be up 14% from last year at 4.64 million metric tons (MT), notes Agriculture Canada in its latest monthly review of the sector.

Statistics Canada's July 27 to August 5 survey found yields will be below trend for dry peas and dry beans, but higher for lentils, chickpeas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed.

"Compared to 2006-07, yield estimates are lower for dry peas, dry beans, chickpeas and sunflower seed, but higher for lentils, mustard seed and canary seed," Agriculture Canada said.

"Crop abandonment is estimated to be lower than normal. Harvest progress is slightly behind 2006-07, but well ahead of normal, with most of the dry peas, lentils and mustard seed already harvested.

"Harvest is also underway for chickpeas and canary seed. The dry bean, buckwheat and sunflower seed harvests are expected to start in early, mid and late September, respectively.

"Quality is expected to be normal, assuming normal weather conditions during the remainder of the harvest period. The risk of frost damage is generally low for unharvested fields due to the advanced stage of development," Agriculture Canada said.

Despite the increase in production, total supply could drop 5% to 5.3 million MT "as the increase in production is more than offset by lower carry-in stocks. Exports and domestic use are forecast to decrease due to the lower supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to historically low levels for most crops.

"Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase from 2006-07, for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat, but decrease for chickpeas. The main factor to watch is weather, especially precipitation, during the remainder of the harvest period. Other factors to watch are crop conditions in other major producing regions, especially the US, Australia, India and Mexico, currency exchange rates and ocean shipping costs," Agriculture Canada said.

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