Limited Controversy Over StatsCan Numbers

VANCOUVER - Aug 23/07 - SNS -- Statistics Canada's first production estimates of the season for specialty crops proved controversial among some market participants, but appear to have been generally in line with industry expectations.

The survey of 17,000 individual farms across Canada was conducted between July 27 and August 5, with the result growers were able to moderate yield expectations based on the potential impact hot and dry conditions in July would likely have on yields.

Average yields are expected to be above their recent five-year averages, which include the drought years of 2002 and 2003. Compared to their previous three-year average yields, Statistics Canada is looking for higher lentil, dry edible bean, chickpea, canaryseed, and sunflower yield; but lower field pea and mustard seed results.

Most market participants will not be surprised to see downward revisions in coming crop reports, especially for field peas and lentils; but they are not looking for the steep reductions called for some processors and exporters.

Statistics Canada did not shine any more light on the red versus green lentil production debate with this report. It is not expected to recast estimated seeded area and production by class of specialty crop until its final report of the season on December 6, 2007.

Discussing its take on the crop outlook, Statistics Canada said, "Planting conditions varied in the Prairie Provinces with generally abundant to excessive levels of soil moisture this spring. As a result, crops in some areas were planted near the end of the seeding window for the 2007 growing season.

"However, hot and dry conditions in July changed the production outlook with crop yields declining, due to reduced topsoil moisture conditions. The situation was most evident in south central and south western Saskatchewan, and in southern Alberta. At the time of this report, it is believed that rain could still help crops finish in many areas of the Prairie Provinces, where the production of all feed grains, canola and durum wheat is expected to rise from 2006. On the other hand, output of wheat excluding durum and flaxseed could fall. In some southern areas of Saskatchewan, the harvest has begun."

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