Modest Dip in Winter Wheat Estimate

WASHINGTON - Aug 10/07 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.54 billion bushels, down 2% from the July 1 forecast but up 18% from 2006, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.

Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and 0.4 bushel below last year. Expected grain area totals 37.2 million acres, up 20% from last year but down 1% from last month. Harvest in the 18 major producing States was 88% complete by July 29. This was 2 percentage points behind last year but 2 points ahead of the 5-year average.

Harvest was virtually complete by the end of July in all Hard Red Winter States except Montana and Oklahoma. Yield forecasts were unchanged from last month in all States in the central and southern Great Plains except Nebraska. In Kansas, area harvested for grain is down 400,000 acres from the last forecast as a result of excessive rains at harvest time. In Montana, crop development continued at a rapid pace due to hot and dry weather during the month of July. These weather conditions allowed harvest to progress well ahead of normal in the State. Montana's yield forecast is 2 bushels below last month due to unfavorable weather conditions.

Harvest in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was virtually complete in most States by the end of July. Yield prospects across the region continue to be at or below last year's level when most States had record yields. Yield potential in the region was also reduced due to an early April freeze. The yield forecast in Mississippi is a record high as a result of good growing conditions throughout the season.

Yield forecasts in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) States are at or below the previous month's level. Hot, dry weather during July accelerated crop development pushing harvest progress ahead of normal for all States in the region. However, this weather did not significantly affect yield potential in Oregon and Washington.

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