Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - Aug 3/07 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Cow slaughter for the year through the week ending July 14 was still up 10.7 percent from a year earlier. However, for the four-week period ending July 14, total cow slaughter was 3.5 percent below a year earlier. The reduced cow slaughter relative to 12 months earlier for the last four-week period was due to both an increase during this period last year and a decrease this year from earlier in the year.

The demand for all meats with the exception of young chickens or broilers is stronger than a year earlier for the first six months of 2007.

Beef demand at the consumer level for these six months was up 0.6 percent from 12 months earlier. Pork was up 0.3 percent, turkey was up 4.0 percent and broilers were down 3.2 percent from a year earlier.

The demand for both live fed cattle and live hogs for January - June 2007 was up from the same period in 2006. Fed cattle demand was up 3.5 percent and live hog demand was up 2.9 percent from a year earlier. However, for June, calf slaughter was only 4.0 percent above June 2006. A portion of the smaller increase in calf slaughter in June was due to an increase in calf slaughter last year in June from earlier in the year. By June 2006, pastures and ranges in especially Oklahoma, Texas and southern Missouri were dry enough to bring about some increase in both calf and cow slaughter. We still do not believe producers have stopped the slow decline in the cow herd.

Feeder cattle and calves prices at Oklahoma City this week were firm to $2 per cwt higher with instances of $3-4 per cwt higher on 500-650 pound steers.

The range in prices this week at Oklahoma City by weight groups for medium- and large-frame number one steers were: 400-500 pounds $128-135.50 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $121.50-133.50 per cwt, 600-700-pound calves $116-119.50 per cwt, 600-700-pound yearlings $120.75-133.50, 700-800 pounds $111-121.50 per cwt and 800-1,000 pounds $104-115.75 per cwt.

The August futures contract for feeder cattle has rallied over $10 per cwt in the last month following the release by USDA that corn producers were planting over 92 million acres of corn.

Replacement cow prices for cows pre-tested for Bangs, pregnancy and age medium- and large-frame numbers one and two were: 3-4 years old, 1,100-1,150 pounds, bred 5-7 months, high quality black $985-1,010 per head; 3-4 years old, 950-1,050 pounds, bread 5-7 months, average quality black $800-900 per head; 5-6 years old, 1,050-1,275 pounds, bred 5-6 months, average quality black $740-875 per head; and 7-9 years old, 1,050-1,350 pounds, bred 5-6 months, high quality black $800-900 per head.

Fed cattle prices through Thursday at $90.30 per cwt weighted average for the five-market area were up $1.45 per cwt from a week earlier. Weighted average carcass prices for the five-market area were up $3.10 per cwt from seven days earlier at $143.50 per cwt.

Wholesale beef prices showed Choice beef at $144.55 per cwt Friday morning, up $4.00 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef at $138.85 per cwt was up $4.07 per cwt from last week.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 671 thousand head, up 6.7 percent from a year earlier.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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