Smaller Canadian Wheat Crop

WINNIPEG - Aug 2/07 - SNS -- The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) reduced its forecasts for this year's wheat and durum harvests, with the agency's weather and crop surveillance department projecting a wheat crop of 16.1 million metric tons (MT), durum production of 3.9 million MT and barley production of 11.3 million MT.

The CWB's 2007-08 preliminary bulk export target (excluding products) for wheat, durum and barley is 15.8 million MT.

In releasing its forecasts, the CWB said, "Intense heat across Western Canada has reduced earlier production estimates by over 10 per cent for durum and barley and will impact crop quality, particularly in durum-growing regions. In addition, farmers this year seeded the smallest spring wheat crop since 1970, due to lower early price indications as well as rains during spring seeding in parts of the Prairies."

Also, at its marketing year end news conference, the CWB said:

* The CWB exported a record 4.4 million MT of durum (estimated shipments) in the 2006-07 crop year. All durum offered by western Canadian farmers was accepted. The previous record was set in 2005-06, when 4.2 million MT of durum were sold.

* The CWB exported 12.9 million MT of wheat and 1.1 million MT of barley.

* There were record wheat shipments during the year to Indonesia (1.54 million MT) and Mexico (1.19 million MT), surpassing previous highs of 1.50 million MT to Indonesia in 1996-97 and 1.16 million MT to Mexico in 2000-01.

* The CWB exported 443 000 MT of wheat to the United Kingdom last year, the largest exports to that country since 1986-87, when 503 000 MT of wheat were sold to the UK.

* The CWB marketed 1.1 million MT of wheat to the United States during 2006-07. This returns western Canadian sales to levels seen prior to the imposition of an American tariff wall against imports of Canadian hard red spring wheat from 2003 to 2006. The CWB also shipped 630 000 MT of durum to the U.S. last year.

* India imported 839 000 MT of western Canadian wheat in 2006-07, the first major shipment to India since 1996-97, when 266 000 MT of Canadian wheat was purchased.

* The CWB made major inroads into the Colombian and Peruvian markets for wheat and barley, including newly developed wheat markets on Colombia's Carribean coast (a traditional market for U.S. wheat) and providing the first wheat shipment to a new Colombian mill. The CWB also began dealing directly with large millers and food processors in Peru, with sales of more than 250 000 MT of wheat and durum.

* The largest-volume customers for western Canadian wheat in 2006-07 were: Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, the United States, Sri Lanka, Japan and India. Top durum customers were Algeria, the U.S., Morocco, Italy and Canada. The largest malting barley buyers Canada, China, the U.S., Colombia and Japan. The main feed barley customer was Japan.

* Barley marketing was hampered by market uncertainty in the wake of a March 28 federal government announcement of plans to create an open barley market on August 1. The CWB reduced its bulk export projections to 1.2 million MT.

* Production in Western Canada for 2006 was 22,4 million MT for all wheat, above the five-year average of 21.7 million MT, and 8.9 million MT for barley. Eighty-seven per cent of Canada Western Red Spring wheat was in the top two grades, with average protein of 13.4 per cent.

* CWB production estimates for 2007 are: 16.1 million MT for wheat, 3.9 million MT for durum and 11.3 million MT for barley. Intense heat in much of western Canada has lowered yield and quality outlooks, particularly in durum-growing regions.

* The CWB's 2007-08 preliminary bulk export target (excluding products) for wheat, durum, and barley is 15.8 million MT.