Tough Season in Michigan

LANSING - Aug 2/07 - MFB -- Hope that Michigan farmers can salvage full, profitable crops this season hasn't dried up yet, but despair is growing in many parts of the state as drought conditions range from moderate to extreme.

"What makes it so difficult is that it all depends on which part of the state you're in," said Michigan State University agricultural meteorologist Jeff Andresen. "This drought appears more acute in the Great Lakes from northern Minnesota southeast through Michigan into northern Indiana and Ohio, but remember that much of the Upper Peninsula is in much more serious shape because they've had severe dryness there for at least three years."

A Michigan Weather Summary produced by the Michigan Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) shows that from April 1 to July 29, every region of the state has received much less precipitation than what they normally receive. In the Western Upper Peninsula, for instance, accumulated precipitation totals just 7.21 inches. Normally during this timeframe, the region receives 11.58 inches.

Suffering in the rest of the state would be worse, Andresen said, if not for a very wet off-season from last winter into spring.

"Without that, I'm certain that crop damage would be much more significant than it is," he said. "As it is, the impacts are getting larger with time."

It may be too late for some crops. Hay yields from northern Michigan into Indiana and Ohio are way off, driving prices way up and canceling plans for fourth or fifth cuttings, said custom hay harvester John Schaendorf of Hopkins.

"We got about 35% of normal yields in first cutting, 50% of normal in second cutting, and a 70% reduction in third cutting," he said.

If it doesn't rain shortly, a lot of grain corn won't make it either, said Schaendorf.

"It's not pollinating in some areas, and that leaves a lot of livestock farmers trying to figure what they're going to feed. But there's nothing we can do but pray for rain," he said.

Farmers with hay to sell aren't complaining too much. The lack of forage has driven alfalfa from an average range of $100 to $120 per ton up to $240 to $250 per ton, Schaendorf said.

Timely rain may yet salvage a cutting of alfalfa in most parts of the state, but it may be too late for some areas of corn, said Charles Scovill, an agronomist with the Garst Seed Co.

"The damage I've seen in most cases is irreparable," said Scovill. "If we still get some rain, it might pollinate alright, but crops are uneven in emergence because the lack of rain early on caused uneven growth. So I think yield reduction will be all over the board. Some farmers will have their best corn crop ever, and some may not be worth harvesting. There's no way to say that we'll have a blanket 20% crop reduction, but that wouldn't surprise me."

Michigan's soybean crop appears to be faring better, Scovill said.

"The good news is that there is no white mold this year, and foliar diseases are at a minimum. But once the days start getting shorter, they put on flowers to form pods. So each day without rain, the flowers shrivel up and drop off. I think every day now without rain, we're seeing yield reductions."

Even if a soybean plant forms adequate pods, Scovill said the beans inside may be half their normal size.

The Michigan Field Office of NASS tracks weekly crop conditions each growing season. The latest report shows that within just a week the amount of corn considered to be in "good to excellent" condition fell 11%, from 37% on July 22 to 26% on July 29. At this same time last year, 72% of the state's corn crop was rated "good to excellent."

Similar patterns exist for soybeans. On July 29, 30% of the soybean crop was in "good to excellent" condition, down from 40% a week earlier and 69% a year ago.

While crop conditions are down in Michigan, other corn and soybean states are seeing better results, which is why consumers aren't seeing dramatic fluctuations in commodity prices, said Bob Boehm, manager of the Michigan Farm Bureau Commodity and Marketing Department.

"Of the 18 corn-growing states, there's only one other state where crop conditions are worse than Michigan, and that's Tennessee, where only 18% of the corn crop is rated 'good to excellent.' Meanwhile, states like Illinois and Nebraska are reporting that more than 70% of their corn is in good or excellent shape. So while things may seem gloomy locally, the big picture is brighter, and that's helped keep commodity prices stable."

As for other Michigan crops, the same variable conditions exist, according to the Michigan Field Office of NASS. The office reports that vegetable growers have been irrigating as much as possible, and fruit, while variable in size, appears to be good quality.

With many experts conceding that it's too late for rain to salvage crops in many areas, Michigan's Farm Service Agency (FSA) is prepared to send spot drought reports to the governor at harvest time, said Nancy Deitz, Michigan FSA director. For Michigan farmers to be eligible for federal disaster aid, the governor must first make a request based on FSA spot reports from affected counties.

"We'd certainly rather have the crops produce than do the disaster work, but we won't really be able to tell the extent of the damage until harvest," she said. "We'll compile the information at that time and get it to the governor as soon as possible if we see that it's necessary."

This year's drought also may contribute to longer-term financial problems for farmers, and that typically trickles down to local equipment dealers, some of whom are concerned that farmers won't have enough yields to fulfill crop contracts, which lessens the amount of money they'll spend on new equipment.

"I've spoken with farmers who have said they're shutting down their wallets until we get some rain," said Curtis Mowry, general sales manager with J&D Implement in Bad Axe. But up until mid- July, he said, sales were good.

"Customers up until then had been quite optimistic," he said. "But we were getting a couple showers now and then, and when they hit, we closed some deals. But now, they won't purchase until they see rain. Things are getting that critical."

Copyright (c) 2007 Michigan Farm Bureau