Linn Group Morning Soybean Comment

CHICAGO - Jul 17/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.

Soybeans ended Fridays session up 7 ¼ cents in the November contract. This
is the 7th. consecutive higher close. For the Week November soybeans gained
52 ¾ cents over the previous week. Traders say forecasts for extreme heat in
the western corn belt is the main reason for the extremely bullish type of
sentiment last week. The products closed into new highs as well with Meal
gaining an additional $2.30 on Friday for its 6th. consecutive higher close
and for the week gained $ 32.7. Soybean Oil also surged to new contract
highs with December bean oil gaining 7 tics on Friday. Volume on Friday was
the lightest of the week with an estimated 94,767 soybean futures traded,
40,968 meal futures and 37,922 oil futures traded. Funds Bought an estimated
2,500 beans, 1,500 meal and 500 oil.

After last weeks steady rise in prices, new weather forecasts knocked the
beans back overnight, ending the night session down 27 ¼ cents overnight.
This was not the worst of it, at one point November beans were down 40 ¾
cents. Traders say a change in weather has facilitated the break off the
contract highs overnight. Forecasts call for thunderstorms today and Tuesday
favoring northern areas and Wednesday into Friday will see continued chances
of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the corn belt. Technical
traders have indicated the market was due a break and say nobody should be
surprised to see this type of price action given the lofty levels we are
trading at. Today the NOPA crush was released at 141.583  above an average
estimate for 136.8 million. Friday's CFTC commitments of traders report for
futures and options

combined showed that as of last Tuesday, large speculators were long 164,890
soybeans, up 16,452 from the previous week and short 30,303, up 3,168. Index
funds were long 79,772, up 205 lots and short 2,826, down 532 lots. Soybean
basis continues to be very weak in spite of the very bullish futures trade.
Overnight Chinese Soybeans, meal and oil all closed lower. Malaysian Palm
oil futures ended the night session lower.

Early Opening Calls: 20 to 25c lower; soymeal $8-10 lower; soyoil 40-50c
lower.

Top News

** CropScout Tour kicks off 2007 season tour today!

**June US NOPA Soybean Crush:  141.583 mil bushels, which is -1.771 mil less
than May

**June US NOPA Soy Meal Exports:  -53k tons to 453k tons total

**June US NOPA Soy Oil Stocks:  +0.027 bil lbs to 2.951 bil lbs total

-- Analyst expect slight drop in conditions for today's Crop Progress report

-- 80,000 MT of soyoil were imported by China during the month of June, acc.
to Chinese customs data

-- The Commitment of Traders report with Options as of July 10 shows Funds:
Soybeans Long 134,587 up 13,284; Meal Long  54,804 up 9,670; Soyoil Long
68,017 up 3,089. The Supplemental report shows Index Funds: Soybeans Long
149,863 up 2,747

-- Fund traded moderate Friday and mostly on the buy side. Funds bought
2,500 Soybeans, 1,500 Meal, 500 Oil.

-- Dalian Soybean Jan. futures settled lower; soymeal & soyoil futures
settled mostly lower also.

-- July 1-15 palm oil exports from Malaysia were pegged at 470,320 T down
from the 504,501 T in FH June, according to Intertek

-- eCBOT Vol. 62,642; Pit Vol. 28,067; Open Interest Change: +4,703

-- Weather: Above Normal Temps. Normal to below Precip

-- Outside markets. Energy complex lower; Gold & Silver: lower; US $
slightly higher vs Euro, lower vs Yen.

Cash Markets

--CIF Soybeans:  July -18 to -12, Aug. -13 to -8, Sept. -25 to -5, Oct. -10
to -7, Nov. +2 to +15, Jan. +10 to +20



To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly

Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/

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