Linn Group Morning Soybean Comment

CHICAGO - Jul 10/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.

A mid-session rally pushed soybeans to new contract highs. After spending
the first half of the session in negative territory, November soybeans
closed 6 cents higher, the 4th consecutive higher close. With a close above
$9.00 into new highs, traders say this should propel us into new higher
levels. Many analysts project $ 9.50 to $10.00 levels as the next target.
Since the release of the June Acreage report November soybeans have gained
59.3/4 cents. Overnight November soybeans traded lower by 6 ¾ cents and
recovered  to end that session up ¾ cents on news that private weather
forecasters project ridge in the long term weather maps released very early
this morning. Volume on Monday was moderate with an estimated 117,538
soybean futures traded, 35,950 soybean oil futures traded and 29,518 meal
futures traded. Funds bought an estimated 2,500 soybeans, 1,000 meal and
even in oil.

Yesterday after the close the USDA released the weekly crop progress report
showing soybeans 65% rated good to excellent vs. 68% last week, 58% last
year  and 60% average. Also released yesterday (late due to the July 4th.
holiday) the CFTC released the commitment of traders report showing funes
long 121,303 soybeans up 4,707, Meal long 45,134up 4,109 and oil long 64,928
up 6603. The Supplemental report showing index funds has soybeans long
147,116 up 2,686. Talk continues today that China is slowing their purchases
of soybeans due to higher CBOT prices hurting crush margins. Traders say
what few cargoes China has been purchasing lately have generally come from
South America where prices are cheaper. In Export sales Bean shipments were
4.7 mil. bu. vs 8.3 last week and 6 last year.  Bean basis levels continue
to show the slow down in China demand with Brazil basis at 50 to 55 under.
The 6 to 10 day forecast calls for Normal to below normal temperatures and
Normal to below Normal. Overnight Chinese Soybeans closed unchanged, meal
and oil lower. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed higher.

Top News

Soybean Progress & Conditions Mini-Recap

Soybeans % Blooming:  40%; 19% week ago; 36% yr ago week; 28% 5 yr avg.

Soybean Crop Conditions Latest: VP= 2; P= 7; F= 26; G= 51; EX= 14

Soybean Crop Conditions Prior Wk: VP= 2; P= 6; F= 24; G= 53; EX= 15

Soybean Crop Conditions Yr Ago Wk: VP= 3; P= 9; F= 30; G= 47; EX= 11

================================================================

-- 21,000 mt of Non GMO soybeans sought by S Korea state Ag Fisheries for
late October delivery, tender expected to close on July 18, acc. to company
officials

-- Chinese custom officials report China  13.85 mmt of Soybeans in the first
half of the year.  This is down 1.4% from the same period last year.

-- Corn price rise due to biofuel momentum are not the reason why general
food prices are rising, rather global grain stocks & weather were attributed
by Amer. Farm Bureau economist for recent gains.

-- Dalian Soybean futures active Jan contract unch, other contracts lower;
soymeal lower; soyoil active contract months were lower overnight.

-- Malaysian Palm futures overnight reacted to soyoil prices & slow down in
production by rising +0.8% overnight, however reduced export data kept the
market gains limited.

-- July Soybean Deliveries:  2,833

-- July Soybean Meal Deliveries:  0

-- July Soybean Oil Deliveries:  496

-- eCBOT Vol. 75,392; Pit Vol. 37,621; Open Interest Change: +4,119

-- Fund trade mixed Monday. Funds were 'even' in Oil. Bought 2,500 Soybeans,
1,000 Meal.

-- Weather: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to below Precip. The Corn Belt
will see showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday

-- Outside markets. Energy complex lower, nat gas higher; Gold & Silver:
slightly higher; US $ lower vs both Yen & Euro

Cash Markets

--CIF Soybeans:  July -12 to -4, Aug. -8 to +2, Sept. -8 to +2, Oct. Opt. to
+8, Nov. +12 to +20, Jan. +25 to +30



To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly

Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/

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