Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - Jul 6/07 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Cattle producers received good news on Friday of last week. According to USDA, corn producers have planted 92.89 million acres to corn. This number is up 2.43 million acres from the March intentions of 90.45 million acres and up 14.56 million acres from the 2006 planted acreage. With a normal yield of corn this year, corn prices in the first half of 2008 may be less or no higher than in the first half of 2007.

Some of the good news about corn acreage was offset by smaller plantings of soybeans at 64.1 million acres, down 15 percent from last year. This will contribute to higher soybean meal prices.

Receipts of feeder cattle at Oklahoma City this week were quite light because of the July Fourth holiday. Compared to last week in a limited test, steers and heifers were steady to $3 per cwt higher than seven days earlier. Steer and heifer calves were steady.

The prices for medium- and large-frame number one steers by weight groups were: 400-450 pounds $134-140 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $118-129.50 per cwt, 600-700-pound yearlings $115-122 per cwt, 651-pound calves $113 per cwt, 750-800 pounds $112.25 per cwt, and 850-900 pounds $103.50-109.50 per cwt.

Replacement cow prices at Oklahoma City this week for cows pre-tested for Bangs, pregnancy and age were: 2-3 years old, 950-1,175 pounds, bred 5-6 months, average-high quality $825-890 per head; and 8 years old, bred 7 months, high quality $800 per head.

Prices for cow and calf pairs were: cows 2-4 years old, 800-1,000 pounds with a calf weighing 120-150 pounds, average quality $950-1,110 per pair; and 6-year-old cows weighing 1,300 pounds with a calf weighing 300 pounds, high quality $1,250 per pair.

Cow slaughter for 2007 through the week ending June 16 was 13.9 percent above 12 months earlier. Dairy cow slaughter for this period was up 12.7 percent and beef cow slaughter was up 14.9 percent from last year. However, cow slaughter for the two weeks ending June 16 was up only 1.6 percent from 12 months earlier. The change in slaughter rate from last year in the last two weeks available was due mostly to an increase in cow slaughter for the same two weeks last year due to the dry weather in Texas, Oklahoma and Missouri.

Calf slaughter continues to run well above last year. For January - May, calf slaughter this year was nearly 21 percent above 12 months earlier.

The fed cattle weighted average price last week for the full week was down less than one dollar per cwt. Through Thursday, the price was down $2.79 per cwt.

The weighted average price for fed cattle for the five-market area this week at $86.50 per cwt was up $0.74 per cwt through Thursday compared to all of last week. The weighted average carcass price for the week through Thursday was up $2.50 per cwt at $136 per cwt compared to last week's full week.

Wholesale beef prices Friday morning for Choice beef at $139.60 per cwt was up $0.68 per cwt from seven days earlier. Select beef was up $0.88 per cwt at $133.56 per cwt Friday morning compared to last week.

Slaughter this week at 582 thousand head was down 2.7 percent from a year earlier.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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