Lentil Break Down Incites Traders

VANCOUVER - Jun 26/07 - SNS -- There were so many surprises in Statistics Canada seeded area estimates "I needed to keep rereading it to make I wasn't cross-eyed," quipped one trader after reviewing at this morning's numbers for 2007 and revisions to 2006 seeded area and production data.

The real surprises were in the details. Starting with last year's June seeded area estimate, Statistics Canada breaks down specialty crop area by province and class for dry edible beans, lentils, field peas, chickpeas, mustard and canaryseed. Last year, the federal agency also broke down production by class and province in its final crop report of year.

Markets did not take exception to the idea lentil area is up 3.6% at 1.335 million acres. But, they were caught off guard when Statistics Canada said red lentil area in western Canada plunged 100,000 acres from last year to 470,000 instead of rising, while green lentils seedings jumped 141,000 instead of declining. Large green area advanced from 474,000 to 560,000 acres; small greens from 200,000 to 255,000 acres; and other lentils from 45,100 to 50,000 acres.

When questioned about the discrepancy. officials at Statistics Canada simply said, "This is what farmers reported." And that is the core difference between everyone's numbers -- the official data is survey based and the trade's is perception based. Some processors conduct unofficial local surveys. Others look at seed sales and others at the popularity of their production and deferred delivery contracts. But, it not possible to know for certain what is happening with growers with whom there is little contact.

For its part, Statistics Canada conducted computer assisted telephone interviews with approximately 29,000 farms between May 25 and June 5. The list from which farms were picked was updated by the last national Census. Institutional farms, those on Indian reserves, or from the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Newfoundland are excluded from crop production surveys.

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