Grimes and Plain Weekly Hog Outlook

CHICAGO - Jun 18/07 - SNS -- Following is a week ending hog market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Pork exports for April of this year were 12.4 percent below a year earlier. For January - April, pork exports in 2007 were 1.0 percent below 12 months earlier.

This may be the year that the increase in pork exports from a year earlier is broken after 15 consecutive years of record-high exports. With some of the trade agreements in process, a new trend to higher exports is a possibility starting in 2008.

Pork exports to Japan from January - April were up 12.5 percent, to Canada up 1.0 percent, to Mexico down 24.3 percent, to Russia down 17.4 percent, to South Korea up 7.9 percent, to China and Hong Kong up 31.9 percent, to Taiwan down 47 percent, to the Caribbean down 33.9 percent, and to other up 6.6 percent.

Net pork exports as a percent of production for January - April at 9.73 percent were down 0.16 percentage point from a year earlier.

Live-hog imports for April from Canada were up 13.2 percent from a year earlier. Feeder-pig imports were up 11.6 percent and market-hog imports were up 14.4 percent in April compared to 2006.

Live-hog imports for January - April this year were up 9.2 percent from 2006. Feeder-pig imports were up 7.7 percent and market-hog imports were up 12.8 percent from 12 months earlier.

Barrow and gilt weights in Iowa-Minnesota at 265.7 pounds last week were 1.4 pounds above a year earlier. This is the most weights have been above a year earlier since the week ending September 23, 2006. Weights have been below a year earlier most of the time since early May of 2006. There are some observers of the swine industry who believe the problems with circovirus have contributed to these lighter weights in the last year. High corn prices have also probably been a factor since last fall.

The tone in the pork product market this week has been stronger. For the week, the value per cwt of carcass at $78.17 per cwt was up $4.94 per cwt Thursday afternoon compared to a week earlier. Loins were up $7.79 per cwt at $96.13 per cwt, Boston butts at $79.25 per cwt were up $8.98 per cwt, hams were up $3.21 per cwt at $62.47 per cwt, and bellies at $102.55 per cwt were up $1.54 per cwt from a week earlier.

Cash live-hog prices this Friday morning were $0.75-1.00 per cwt higher compared to a week earlier. Weighted average carcass prices Friday morning were $0.49 per cwt lower to $5.91 per cwt higher compared to last week.

The live prices at select markets were: Peoria $46 per cwt, St. Paul $50 per cwt and interior Missouri $50.50 per cwt.

The weighted average carcass prices by geographic area were: western Cornbelt $73.74 per cwt, eastern Cornbelt $70.34 per cwt, Iowa-Minnesota $74.76 per cwt and nation $72.13 per cwt.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was up 5.7 percent from a year earlier at 1,924 thousand head.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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