Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - Jun 18/07 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Beef exports during April were up 15.4 percent from a year earlier. For January - April, beef exports were up 19.1 percent from 12 months earlier.

Beef exports for January - April were up sharply percentage-wise for Japan but still quite small in tonnage. Beef exports for the first four months of 2007 were up 38.7 percent to Canada, down 10.9 percent to Mexico, up 14.8 percent to the Caribbean, up 11.9 percent to Taiwan, and up 180.7 percent to other.

Beef imports during April were up 22.9 percent from a year earlier; but for January - April, beef imports were still down 1.4 percent from 2006. Net beef imports as a percent of production declined 1.14 percentage points for January - April of 2007 compared to a year earlier.

Feeder cattle imports from Mexico for January - April were down 21.4 percent. However, April feeder cattle imports from Mexico were up 3.8 percent from last year. Live-cattle imports from Canada in April were up 11.3 percent and total cattle imports for April were up 7.3 percent from 2006. However, total live-cattle imports were still down 7.1 percent for January - April compared to a year earlier.

Total cow slaughter for the year through the week ending May 26 was up 15.2 percent. Daily cow slaughter was up 14.2 percent for the period, and beef-cow slaughter was up 16 percent. For the four-week period ending May 26, total cow slaughter was up 15.1 percent, dairy-cow slaughter was up 7.1 percent, and beef-cow slaughter was up 21.1 percent. The large beef-cow slaughter is probably due to the drought in the southeastern U.S.

Feeder cattle and calf prices were mostly steady to $2 per cwt higher at Oklahoma City this week. The prices for medium- and large-frame number one steers at Oklahoma City by weight groups were: 400-500 pounds $142-147 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $115.50-136 per cwt, 600-700-pound calves $107-116.50 per cwt, 650-700-pound yearlings $114-115.25 per cwt, 700-800 pounds $108-113.50 per cwt, and 800-1,000 pounds $97.50-112 per cwt.

Cash fed-cattle prices continued under downward pressure this week with the 5-market average weighted price at $89.70 per cwt, down $1.50 per cwt from a week earlier. The 5-market weighted average carcass price was down $3.75 per cwt at $140.60 per cwt through Thursday.

The wholesale price of beef this Friday morning showed Choice beef at $145.25 per cwt, down $4.68 per cwt for the week. The price of Select beef was down $3.53 per cwt from a week earlier at $139.43 per cwt.

Calf slaughter through April for the year is up 25 percent from 2006. This larger calf-slaughter and large cow-slaughter suggests the cattle herd is probably shrinking at a slow rate.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 711 thousand head, up 0.4 percent from a year earlier.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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