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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Jun 8/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Thursday’s trade took July Soybeans to a new contract highs and new contract high close ending the session up 9 ¾ cents. Traders say the market gained on technical buying following the strength in corn and soybean oil. Soybean oil was supported by a $1.50 rise in crude oil and a higher Malaysian palm oil market Wednesday night. Estimated soybean volume was large and product volume was moderate to heavy. Soybean trade was estimated at 155,844 futures, oil volume at 49,232 futures and meal volume was 39,234. Funds turned very aggressive buyers Thursday buying 12,000 soybeans, 2,000 meal and 3,000 Oil. Overnight July soybeans gave back much of the gains from Thursday, ending the night session off 8 ½ cents and July bean oil ended the night session down 64 points. Traders say much of the break overnight is being attributed to Palm oil prices being down 4% overnight amid talk that Indonesia is likely to delay plans to raise it’s cooking oil export tax. Technical traders also point to the fact that we are moving into major long term price levels that could be completing this bull run for the moment and could be responsible for the break overnight. Crop weather in the U.S. Midwest continues to unsettle the market and the 6 to 10 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures and Normal to above normal precipitation. Bean basis remains under pressure in the US but South America appeared to firm slightly today on the heels of a break in the Brazilian Real currency. Oil Basis continues to firm as more of the world consumption looks for a cheaper alternative to canola and palm oil. Overnight Chinese soybeans and meal closed lower. Malaysian Palm oil futures ended the session down 4%. Opening calls: Soybeans 7 to 10 lower, Oil .40 to .60 lower. Meal $ 1.00 to $1.50 lower. -- Monday is USDA Monthly Supply/Demand Report -- US-China Trade Deficit widens +$2.12 bil to $19.37 billion, acc to customs data -- US April Petroleum import prices pegged at $57.28/bbl up from the $53.00/bbl avg price in March. -- Indonesia is possibly raising export tax on palm oil from 1.5% to 6.5% if local palm and crude oil stay higher than 7,000 rupiah/kilo, according to their Trade Minister. -- Indian imporrts won't feel the full effect of sky-rocketing palm oil prices due to cuts on customs duties and a strong rupee. -- Plant biologists note the appearance of soybean aphids on plants in Minnesota and Wisconsin, acc. to Iowa State University -- Dalian Soybean futures higher; soymeal mixed; soyoil higher on Friday overnight trade. -- Malaysian palm oil futures declined -6.6% to $713/ton after rumors Indonesia may not raise export taxes on palm oil; traders say market may now be oversold -- eCBOT Vol. 95,863; Pit Vol. 64,138; Open Interest Change: +7,524 -- Weather: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. The Corn Belt will see scattered showers Friday -- Outside markets. Energy complex lower; Gold & Silver: both lower; US $ higher against both Yen & Euro Cash Markets --CIF Soybeans: June -10 to Option, July -2 to +3, Aug. Option to +10, Oct. +10 to +14, Nov. +18 to +26, Jan. +25 to +35 To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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