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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Jun 5/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. July Soybeans ended Mondays session down 1 ¾ cent after trading in a 10 cent range. After Making new contract highs mid day some liquidation occurred traders say. The lows of 813 ¼ for July were hit in the first hour of trading and the market rallied into mid-session only to sell off from the highs into the close. However technicians say they consider this pattern very bullish as the overnight session showed gaining 13 ¼ cents to make new contract highs. Volume on Monday was relatively heavy with an estimated 100,480 soybean futures traded, 45,227 meal and 31,662 Oil traded. Funds were quiet Monday having sold an estimated 1,000 soybeans, 1,000 oil and even in meal. Today the market focuses on another price surge in Malaysian Palm oil. Malaysian Palm futures climbed almost 4% on Tuesday to hit a new high, ignited by expectations that Indonesia will raise cooking oil export tax and by the prospect of India cutting import duty. Palm oil prices which have almost doubled since January 2006 also lifted veg oil markets across the globe. Chinese soybean oil prices are at historic highs and Indian soyoil market is up 1.22%. As a result July CBOT bean oil is up 46 pts. overnight. After yesterdays close the USDA released the weekly crop progress report showing soybean ratings 71% good to excellent vs. 70% last year and a 64% average. The Soybean condition is the highest raging in recent history for this date. Expectations were for this report to show us soybean conditions to rate from 67% to 70% good to excellent. Planting was up 8% to 88% complete. Overnight Chinese soybeans, meal and oil all closed higher overnight. Opening calls: Soybeans called 10 to 15 cents higher, Oil .30 to .50 higher and $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Soybean Progress & Conditions Mini-Recap ---------------------------------------- Soybeans % Planted: 88%; 80% week ago; 88% yr ago week; 81% 5 yr avg. Soybeans % Emerged: 70%; 48% week ago; 66% yr ago week; 56% 5 yr avg. Soybean Crop Conditions Latest: VP= 1; P= 4; F= 24; G= 59; EX= 12 Soybean Crop Conditions Prior Wk: VP= NA; P= NA; F= NA; G= NA; EX= NA Soybean Crop Conditions Yr Ago Wk: VP= 1; P= 4; F= 25; G= 58; EX= 12 -- USDA 06/07 Soybean Inspections: 5.426 mil bu, expected = 7.0-11.0, previous = 4.50 mln bu. -- China proposes soybean import purchases be reported within 72 hours of contracts being signed as a move to offer more market transparency, but did not give a time frame for implementing such a ruling. -- Danville, IL union workers at Bunge oilseed crushing plant approve new 3 yr contract -- Goldman roll starts Thursday. -- Barge freight was steady on Monday -- BN rail freight steady -- Petrobras President says US tarrif on imports restricts the growth of ethanol production in Latin America at a meeting of executives. -- Dalian Soybean futures front months settled lower, back months slightly higher; soymeal mixed; soyoil higher -- Malaysian Palm again set new high on expectations that the Indonesian gov't may set higher export taxes, while others feel India may lower palm oil import duties. -- eCBOT Vol. 62,946; Pit Vol. 34,444; Open Interest Change: +3,866 -- Weather Normal to Below Temps. Above Normal Precip. -- Outside markets. Energy complex lower; Gold & Silver: higher; US $ lower vs Euro & Yen Cash Markets --CIF Soybeans: June +4 to +6, July +7 to +11, Aug. +2 to +10, Oct. +10 to +15, Nov. +20 to +30, Jan. +30 to +35 To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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