Little Change in Ag Canada Outlook

VANCOUVER - Jun 1/07 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada remains confident western Canadian farmers will plant 4% more specialty crops this year as higher areas for dry peas, chickpeas, mustard seed and canary seed are partly offset by lower areas for lentils, dry beans and buckwheat.

The sunflower seed area is expected to be the same as in 2006-07. Statistics Canada's seeding intentions survey, conducted during March 23-31 and released on April 24, provided estimates for most pulse and special crops, but the seeded area for buckwheat was forecast by AAFC.

Overall seeding progress has been normal, but there have been delays in parts of northern Saskatchewan and northern Alberta because of excessive moisture, Agriculture Canada said.

It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada, as soil moisture reserves are generally good.

Total production in Canada is forecast to increase by 4% to 4.61 million metric tons (MT). Total supply is expected to decrease by 9% to 5.46 million MT, as the increase in production is more than offset by lower carry-in stocks. This report incorporates information from the Statistics Canada March 31, 2007 estimates of stocks.

Exports and domestic use are forecast to decrease due to the lower supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to historically low levels for most crops.

Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for 2007-08, over 2006-07, for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat, but decrease for chickpeas. The main factors to watch are exchange rates, petroleum prices, weather and growing conditions in Canada and the major importing and exporting countries.

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