Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - May 11/07 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Calf slaughter for January - March of 2007 was up 26.7 percent from 2006. Based on weekly data the increase in calf slaughter this year was up 14 percent for the 4-weeks ending May 5.

This larger calf slaughter is probably due to the shortage of forages in a significant portion of beef cow country last year and high cow prices.

This is a good way to cut beef supplies. By slaughtering a calf at around 300 pounds as compared to a 1200 pound fed animal reduces the meat supply by about 75 percent per head.

Good progress was made last week in corn planting in the U.S. The total planted was at 53% for the week ending May 6. This compared with 23 percent planted the week ending April 29. However, in 2006 67 percent of the corn crop was planted by the week ending May 6. The five-year average shows 63 percent planted by the week ending May 6. Not much progress in corn planting was made this week due to rain over much of the corn belt.

For the first three months of 2007 average steer carcass weights were down 6 pounds from a year earlier. Heifer weights were down 8 pounds and cow weights were down 12 pounds from 12 months earlier.

For March of 2007 steer carcass weights were down 14 pounds and heifer weights were down 10 pounds from the same month of 2006. These lighter weights are helping hold down the beef supply and are probably a result of the higher corn prices.

Good news from north of the U.S. border, Canada continues to reduce their hog breeding herd. The April 1 Canada breeding herd was 1.6 percent below a year earlier. This will assist in limiting the supply of pork produced in North America.

At Oklahoma City, this week feeder steers and heifers were mostly steady with a week earlier. Stocker cattle and calves steady to $4 per cwt lower with full decline on six weights.

The price by weight groups for medium and large frame no. 1 steers this week at Oklahoma City were: 400-500 pounds $129-141.50 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $124-136 per cwt, 600-700 pounds $110-127 per cwt, 700-800 pounds $106.75-116.25 per cwt and 800-1000 pounds $ 93-109.75 per cwt.

Replacement Cow prices at Oklahoma City this week for cows pre-tested for bangs, pregnancy, and age showed 2-3 year old, 1050-1100 pound, bred 5-7 months, average quality, black $800 per head. Cows 6 years old, 1100-1400 pounds, bred 5-7 months, average quality, $750-850 per head.

Cow calf pairs; 3 year old cows, 950 pounds, calf weights 175 pounds, average quality $1250 per pair.

Fed cattle prices this week for live cattle at $97.09 per cwt up $1.39 per cwt from a week earlier for the week through Thursday for five-market area. Carcass prices for the five-market area for negotiated cattle were up $0.30 per cwt at $154.60 per cwt from seven days earlier.

Wholesale beef prices Friday morning showed choice beef at $162.29 per cwt up $6.65 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef was up $5.40 per cwt at $149.59 per cwt

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 669 thousand head down 5.4 percent from a year earlier.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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