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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - May 2/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.
Tuesdays session ended strong with Soybeans closing up 13 1/4 cents. After
opening slightly lower, July beans began a slow steady ascent throughout the
trading session to the highest close in 2 weeks. Traders say that much of
the rally was around the idea that delays in corn plantings result in delays
in soybean plantings. Farmers say optimal planting time for corn is mid-May
to mid-April and late-May to early-June for soybeans. Mondays crop progress
report shows soybeans only 3% planted vs. a five-year average of 7%. Volume
on Tuesday was heavy with an estimated 111,800 soybean futures traded,
33,885 meal futures traded and 40,022 oil futures traded. Funds bought an
estimated 6,000 soybeans, 3,000 meal and 3,000 oil.
Early opening calls today are slightly higher but traders caution that gains
could be limited by an increasing world supply and potential planting
delays. Short term weather maps shows substantial rains forecast for the
corn belt which could further delay plantings. 6 to 10 day forecast calls
for above normal precip for the western corn belt and above normal temps
throughout the corn belt. Yesterday May 1st. Hamburg based analyst Oil
world said a record world soy surplus seen for 2006/07. They note that
Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay are harvesting huge crops and the net result
is a further increase in world stocks. They estimate 66.9 mil mt. at the end
of this season, up by 6.8 mil mt from the previous record registered a year
earlier. Overnight Chinese Soybean futures closed flat to firm. Meal closed
higher and Malaysian Palm oil closed firm.
eCBOT Overnight
Contract Last Net Change High Low
ZSK7 740^6 -0^4 744^2 739^0
ZSN7 757^0 0^6 760^4 752^4
ZSQ7 761^0 -0^4 765^0 761^0
ZSU7 769^0 0^0 769^0 767^6
ZSX7 785^0 1^4 788^0 780^0
ZMK7 199.3 1.2 199.3 199.3
ZMN7 203.5 -0.2 205.4 203.4
ZMQ7 206.5 0.0 207.8 206.5
ZLK7 33.34 -0.05 33.34 33.34
ZLN7 33.81 0.00 33.93 33.70
ZLQ7 33.98 -0.05 34.11 33.98
Early Opening Calls: soybeans 1 to 2 higher; soymeal steady to lower; soyoil
steady
Top News
-- Abiove raises 07/08 Brazil soybean crushing estimate to 29.8 mln mt, no
comparison figures were given.
-- Egypt tenders for 27,000 T of oilseed oils. Traders says they're looking
for 12,000 T of soyoil & 15,000 T of sunflower oil
-- A.R. Sharma, President of Solvent Extractors Association, said today that
edible oil imports may rise to at least 5 ml tons in the year ended October,
up 14%.
-- Djoko Said Damarjati, director general of marketing for agricultural
products for Indonesia's government, said today that the Vice-President will
double the export duty on palm oil unless cooking oil prices are down to
6,500 to 6,800 rupees a kilo by the end of May.
-- BAGE raises estimates of Argentina's soybean crop to 46 mil tons: up
about +1% from last prediction - record crop for the country despite recent
heavy rains
-- Group of Israeli companies buy 14,000 T of US corn & corn products
(gluten & DDG) totaling 35,000 T. Group was also interested in US soymeal,
traders say the volume is 7,000 mt. All products were expected for mid June
shipment.
-- USDA Keith Collins tesitifies to House Ag subcomittee on Federal crop
insurance. Says more risk management tools have come to producers, but more
work needs to be done.
-- USDA attache to Mexico estimates domestic oilseed production will
slightly increase by 2% in 07/08 season
-- 80 new biodiesel plants expected in the United States - will more than
triple production to around 2.9 bil gallons within the next 2 to 3 years,
acc. to NBB statistics
-- CBOT April Agriculture average daily volume rises in April 2007 by 49%
compared to avg daily volume in year ago April. April's ADV in the CBOT
Agricultural complex set a record - 777,082 contracts, 49 percent greater
than April 2006. Increased electronic trading volume contributed to the
higher volume totals in the Agricultural complex.
-- eCBOT Vol. 67,741; Pit Vol. 44,023; Open Interest Change: +1005
-- Outside markets. Energy lower; US $ higher; Gold & Silver both lower
Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track
Ill Riv Frt
May -2/+2 N +24/26 N +0/?? N +75/ N
225
June +7/11 N +30/32 N +3/?? N +55/ N
225
July +8/142 N +34/37 N +5/?? N +55/ N
250
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil
Chicago -25 K -6 K -38 K
Toledo -36 N -19 N -52 K
Dec ILL -30 N +0 K -12 N -200 K
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/
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