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Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Apr 12/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.
The corn market sold off yesterday as the funds sold the market after a
quiet start. Traders looked at the weather forecast offering the
opportunity to get corn planted over the next week as the catalyst to sell
the corn market as funds sold almost 10,000 contracts by the end of the day.
Rumors out of China has them possibly offering 1 mil tones of corn for
export in the near future and active wheat/corn and bean/corn spreading
weighed on the corn market all day. The new weather forecast looks like
there is window for planting next week and that window could get bigger as
it gets closer. Demand remains very strong, but the corn market
historically goes down into the spring planting season as the market looks
as new corn being planted as bearish. Export activity remains brisk and as
corn prices go lower, this should remain very active. Corn planting remains
on the minds of every trader, but as one trader said yesterday, the vast
majority of the corn is planted between April 20th and May 10th. There is
still plenty of time to plant corn. Sentiment when talking to traders is
that they want to sell corn, either flat price or against long beans or
wheat, but watch out if corn planting continues to be delayed because there
seems to be a lot of corn shorts out in the market.
eCBOT market was lower again overnight as traders continue to see a window
for planting corn in coming weeks. There seems to be two camps in the
current weather forecast with one group seeing a window of opportunity for
better weather opening up next week and another camp that even with the
window, the ground is still too cold and wet to plant. Currently, the bears
are winning this argument. Export sales this morning were better than
expected. Traders estimated export sales at 600,000 - 800,000 and the
actual sales were 1.325 mil. Weather remains the key to the corn market as
it goes through a liquidation phase because most traders believe that corn
will get planted and that problems will be minimal. Remember, corn didn't
rally until last year when actual yields started coming in smaller than
anybody predicted. It looks like China is going to be offering corn for
sale in the near future which will weigh on corn prices. The corn market is
expected to open lower this morning, but might receive some support from the
export sales. Many traders have said they want to find a way to be short
corn, so look for a higher corn market to be sold by traders.
eCBOT Overnight
Contract Last Net Change High Low
ZCK7 358^0 -2^6 360^0 356^2
ZCN7 370^2 -2^4 372^0 368^4
ZCU7 376^4 -3^0 379^0 375^2
ZCZ7 384^4 -3^2 387^2 384^0
Early Opening Calls: 1-2 lower
Top News
**USDA Corn 06/07 Export Sales Net: 1.3256 mln mt; expected 600-850,000
-- Chinese government to grant licenses to export 1 mil tons of corn, saying
1 mil tons would not affect domestic market - Japan likely recipient, acc.
to grain exporters
-- 110,000 mt of corn purchased by S Korean miller group for LH July
delivery.
-- Taiwan bought 60,000 mt. US Corn for June.
-- Feed Assoc. in Korea seeking up to 500,000 mt of corn during early 4Q
2007, according to traders & officials.
-- Dalian Corn futures settled lower.
-- eCBOT Vol: 162,416; Pit Vol.: 109,567; Open Interest change: -9,792
-- Weather: 6-10 day forecast calls for cold from Texas to Ohio with wet
from the Dakotas to Kansas and dry around the Great Lakes
-- Outside markets. Energy markets higher ; US $ lower vs. Yen & Euro ; Gold
& Silver slightly higher
Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track
Ill Riv Frt
Apr +10/14 K +24/27 K +5/+? K +84/90 K
240
May +15/19 K +30/32 K +5 +? K +84/90 K
240
Jun +8/12 N +25/28 N -12/-9 N +55/65
N 270
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro
Oil
Chicago -28 K -12 K -50 K
Toledo -36 K -21 K -55 K
Dec ILL -20 K -15 K -12 K
-225 K
TREND:
Corn was the down side leader today. Continued long liquidation is certainly
part of this. The bear spreading continues and the wheat/corn spreading
continues. Both are nearing resistance or support levels so be careful
pressing at these levels
If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations,
contact me directly.
Jim Riley
Linn Group
877-787-6278
jriley@linngroup.com
www.linngroup.com/
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