Alaron Energy Commodity Comment

CHICAGO - Apr 3/07 - SNS -- Following is the oil and ethnaol futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Minute by minute the energy complex takes on life one headline at a time. And it seems every time you turn around a headline turns the market's fortunes around. Traders must realize that the market can be swept away with the next passing headline and all the news that is fit or not so fit to print.

We started the week with a nervous market that seemed to breathe at least a sigh of relief that we still weren’t shooting at Iran. Another Nigerian hostage taken supported the complex and especially the Brent crude but it was the Iranian hostage crisis that really drove the passions of the market.

The market sea-sawed and stayed firm and got a big rally on a headline that gave the trade an uneasy feeling. The US reported that an American was missing in Iran. According to Reuters News, The United States is asking Iran to provide information about a US citizen believed to have gone missing several weeks ago in Iran while on private business. The State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the family and employer of the man reported him missing and the State Department was sending an official inquiry to Iran via Swiss diplomats who act as a go between because the two countries do not have diplomatic relations. According to the State department his friends and employer are seeking to determine exactly where he is. Bloomberg News, citing a CNN report, said that the American was described as older and retired and was believed to have been trying to set up an interview for an independent author or producer when he went missing on Kish Island off Iran’s southern coast. There were also some rumors that the missing American might be retired FBI and the talk was driving oil market speculation.

But the concern was not to last as hopes were raised for a possible diplomatic solution to the hostage crisis in Iran. Iranian envoy Ali Larijani made a statement that could signal that Iran may be looking for an out of the hostage crisis that they created. Mr. Larijani said that a trial for the 15 captive soldiers would not be necessary and that they could solve this problem through diplomatic channels. He called for a, “delegation to rule on whether a British navel patrol actually metered Iranian waters and if that did then there should be am apology and then the soldiers would be released. Of course he didn’t say that Iran would apologize if the soldiers were indeed in Iraqi waters. I think for the Iranians it’s true that "sorry" seems to be the hardest word. Mr. Larijani said that Iran was not interested in this issue getting more complicated and that Iran interest was solving this problem as soon as possible.

The larger issue at play here is whether or not Mr. Larijani comments are a sign that the voices of the more moderate influences in Iran are starting to be heard. Can it be that Iran is starting to realize that it's time to settle this peacefully and they may be running out of time? Or have they bought themselves enough time to pursue their nuclear ambitions.

ABC news is reporting that Iran may have a nuclear bomb by 2009. ABC says that the Iranians have more than tripled its ability to produce enriched uranium in the last three months, adding some 1,000 centrifuges which are used to separate radioactive particles from the raw material. The development means Iran could have enough material for a nuclear bomb by 2009 according to sources familiar with the dramatic upgrade.The sources say the unexpected expansion is taking place at Iran's nuclear enrichment plant outside the city of Natanz, in a hardened facility 70 feet underground.

Summer vacation is coming and soon kids from coast to coast will be complaining how board they are! Well why not send them out to the garage and have them tinker around with you car. Because if your little geniuses can figure out how to make your car get 100 miles per gallon that they can get a cool 10 million dollars. The X Prize Foundation, the same group that paid a prize to the first private group that can build a space craft that could leave the earth’s atmosphere, is hoping the prize will inspire some great new ideas! And I think I should get a prize for figuring out how to keep the kids busy and out of the house.

The market still has a bullish outlook even if the Iranian crisis is solved. Cash crude is above $72.00 a barrel due to the spike in Brent crude.

We're long May crude from apprx 5950 - raise stop to 6430!!! We are targeting $76.00!!

We're long May RBOB gas from apprx 18991 - raise stop to 20100!!!

Buy May heating oil at 18300 - stop 17900.

Stopped on long May natural gas from apprx 730 and at apprx 755!!! Buy May natural gas at 690 - stop 670.

Phil Flynn

Alaron Research Team

800.935.6487

pflynn@alaron.com

www.alaron.com

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