for the World's Agriculture Industry Since 1988 |
![]() | ||
For full site access Lost Password? Customer Center Trade Directory Special Crops Beans Lentils Peas Chickpeas Birdseed Mustard & Other Spices & Herbs Dried Fruit & Nuts Supply-Demand The rest of Agriculture Bio-Energy Commentary Grain Oilseed Livestock Poultry Cotton & Wool Fresh Fruit & Vegetables Dried Fruit & Nuts Dairy Technology General Organic Just for Growers Cash Markets Futures Markets Weather Price Graphs Export Data Supply-Demand Subscribe Today! Privacy Policy Subscriber Agreement Ag Links Affiliates Add Headlines! To your website! |
Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Mar 8/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. The corn market rallied on Wednesday on the back of stronger crude oil prices and strikes down in Argentina that is delaying corn shipments and possibly force the cancellation of some shipments. As one trader said this morning, we have seen a lot of labor strife this year, but it has been rare to see cancellation of shipments. Rain is also causing some delaying in corn shipments out of Argentina. Corn traders are keeping one eye on the crude and ethanol market while trading corn because of this new relationship between corn and energy, so both the higher crude and ethanol markets lent support to corn yesterday. Funds were buyers of 7,000 corn contracts and spreading was pretty active. Traders continue to estimate the number of acres of corn that is going to be planted this spring and that number will probably determine what is going to happen to the price of corn. Traders also watching the weather for the next 4-8 weeks because that will have a material affect on the number of acres planted. Commercials remain very active in buying corn on any breaks, but traders say it is going to be very hard to find buyers on rallies unless we have new news hit the market. eCBOT market was a little higher overnight in a tight trading range and light volume. The corn market is going to be choppy and in a trading range until the release of the USDA report at the end of the month or until we see new news hit the market or we have a change in weather. Export sales this morning were very strong again at 1.183, above the estimate of 700,000 - 900,000. This increase wasn't unexpected, but it was still a good number, especially after last weeks disappointing weekly sales. Argentina still having labor problems at their largest port and this could delay some shipments. Argentina also announced this morning that they are suspending all wheat exports which was not expected. Crude oil and higher Asian markets this morning will lend support to corn at least on the opening and look for funds to possible be in the corn market to push it higher. Turkey tendering for 300,000 tones of corn and Manila outlines plans to buy 200,000 tones of corn. We are looking for the corn markets to open higher this morning and see if it can gain momentum. The only momentum it will probably find is from the funds. Technically, the May is in the middle of the recent range, so with no fundamental news, traders think the market will find buying up towards the top of the range and then sell off. It will take something new to get into new highs. eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZCH7 416^0 0^2 416^0 415^2 ZCK7 425^2 0^6 426^0 423^0 ZCN7 434^2 1^4 434^6 432^0 ZCU7 422^0 2^0 422^2 418^4 Early Opening Calls: 2 to 3c higher Top News **USDA March 8th Weekly Export Sales, Corn: 1,188.3 mt, expected = 700k-900k -- Turkey looking to purchase 300k tons of corn, 75k tons of milling wheat at tender, following another tender last week - shipment = April-May, deadline = 3/14 -- Ag. secretary in the Philippines plans to buy 200k mt of yellow corn for June-July delivery in an effort to meet shortfall in domestic supply of feed grain. -- South American grain harvests increase demand for Panamax vessels - charter rates at 3 year highs - $45,000/day plus bonus Corn 363 thru 3/5/07 no stopper -- Corn spreads: FCS 700 CH/CK, IA 200 CZ/CK, 200 CK/CH -- Average estimates for Friday's USDA S&D report: Corn 763 vs. 752 Soybeans 589 vs. 595 Wheat 473 vs. 472 -- ECB raises rates 0.25%, meanwhile Bk of England held interest rates steady. -- 6-10 day forecast shows above normal temps, below normal precip -- Volume was 176.5 with open interest up .24 to 1442.3 -- Outside markets: metals higher, energies higher, stocks sharply higher Cash Markets -- CIF Corn: Mar. +28 to +30, Apr. +29 to +31, May +32 to +35, June +30 to +33, July +32 to +36, Aug. +33 to +38, Oct. +30 to +34. TREND: Corn had another narrow range trade as see-saw in what appears to be a $4.10 to $4.30 s/t range situation. Still look for $4.05 to $4.10 to handle breaks but this choppy action could force a test of that area. Short term resistance shows at $4.30 which could be significant on the long term charts - again with next week's March expiration. Buying otm calls would still seem to be the most prudent approach after this initial 36-cent break off the highs. Look at the ck 450 calls - closed at 11. Target $4.05 to $4.10 to buy ck. If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations, contact me directly. Jim Riley Linn Group 877-787-6278 jriley@linngroup.com www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
|