Alaron Energy Commodity Comment

CHICAGO - Mar 7/07 - SNS -- Following is the oil and ethnaol futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

When you think about it a one third chance of something happening is about a two thirds chance of something not happening. And no I am not talking about the odds of me winning the Mega-Millions Jackpot of 370 or so million dollars. (Which by the way I am destined to win).

I am talking about the great odds-maker, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who some blame for starting a global economic sell-off by saying that there was a possibility of a recession. That possibility was then put in terms of probability when Mr. Greenspan was booking odds that there was a one third chance that we would see a recession sometime this year. That possibility and Mr. Greenspan’s probability immediately inspired work by some of the great mathematicians of our time that after much study came to the conclusion that one third is actually much smaller than two thirds. Maybe in the end finding the answer to this mystifying equation was the inspiration for the world stock markets to lift their way out of the darkness and into the black and in turn lift black gold oil back up in a quiet pre-DOE trading session.

Yet are we perhaps giving Mr. Greenspan too much blame or too muck credit for the market's recent fortunes? Is it entirely possible that the market may actually move with or without the approval or disapproval of Mr. Greenspan? Is it possible that the market collapses and subsequent rebound seemingly coinciding with Mr. Greenspan's comments is just a coincidence? Could Alan Greenspan actually be the Forest Gump of the world’s financial markets? In fact speaking of forests, its kind of like that old philosophical question about the tree in the forest. For example, if Alan Greenspan falls in the forest and no-one is there to hear him, will the market rally or break? Perhaps we may want chart this and put those mathematicians back to work. What if there is a two thirds chance that someone will hear him? Does that mean there is a one third chance that the market will react? The answer to these questions may not be answered here today in today’s energy report but may be attributed to the mysteries of the ages.

Why does the market move to Mr. Greenspan. He no longer has his foot on the brake or the accelerator of the world economies. But it is obvious that in America most Americans do have there foot on the accelerator. Well the car accelerator anyway. Gas prices in the US have risen almost 32 cents a gallon in the last month. Of course that came after a big drop in January. Gas prices are on the rise as crude prices are on the rise because in last weeks report the IEA reported that February demand for oil was 7.5% above a year ago and the highest on record. Will today’s oil inventory report continue to add to that record for demand? I mean let’s face it, global warming is letting us down. Wasn’t the month of March supposed to be warmer than normal. Instead New York is hitting record low temperatures and in parts of Canada they are experiencing their coldest February ever. That cold snap helped drive natural gas prices higher as well.

The bad luck for Putin critics continues. Another Russian reporter bites the dust. The Wall Street Journal says that a Russian reporter died in a suspicious fall and was working on an article on missile sales to Syria and Iran. Over 50 journalists in Russia have met with untimely deaths since Mr. Putin has taken office. Is that a statistical anomaly? And if it is, does that improve my chances of winning the lottery?

The New York Times says that the Peak Oil Theory is toast because new technologies are getting more oil out of old wells. Is the global warming theory the next to be turned into toast?

Forget those soaps and reruns today and instead tune in to see me on First Business TV, then see me break the Department of Energy inventory numbers on Bloomberg TV. Then I'll be discussing gas prices on MSNBC and wrap up the energy day on CNBC Asia.

Did ever feel like you were like Forrest Gump - always at the right place at the right time! Well if you don’t feel that way maybe it is because you haven’t subscribed to www.alaronenergies.com. If you want to find out what you have been missing just call me today at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@alaron.com to open your account. Also sign up for my email blast and get the latest option and day-trade recommendations.

We’re long April Crude from apprx 5925 - leave stop at 5940.

Buy April RBOB at 17600 - stop 17400.

Buy April heating oil at 17400 - stop 17200.

We’re long April natural gas from apprx 720 - leave stop at 701.

Phil Flynn

Alaron Research Team

800.935.6487

pflynn@alaron.com

www.alaron.com

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.