Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Mar 2/07 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

CORN:

Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 318 t.m.t. of corn was sold last week, down 61% from the week prior and 68% under our four week average. Asian sales were weak but most of the weakness came as last week had one last export day do the President's Day Holiday. NO concern here on demand. The market shrugged off the report and began selling the open on concerns again that the Shanghai Stock Market was down sharply over night leading to U.S. stock issues decline. Large equity funds again like on Tuesday would turn to their huge profits in long corn futures to sell and cover their stock woes. Large equity funds around the world have so many billions of dollars invested across the board from pork bellies, cotton, gold, sugar to all the grains that this intermingling has a domino effect through our exchanges. Each day we come in, we check all these issues. One, how did grains close overnight in China? Palm oil in Malaysia, which effects soy oil, The currencies? Metals and then stocks? Each one of these outside markets has an effect on grains. Ten year ago we checked the cash grain price to see what futures would do during the day but it is now a global market connection. Friday faired a little better even as metals and stocks saw heavy selling corn was only off 5 to 7 cents as we headed into midsession. At some point the corn and other grains will refocus on their own fundamentals and that might be Monday, especially if stock indices settle down or stabilize. May corn has minor support at 4.18 then major support at 4.10. 4.10 looks to be a price that should hold as next Friday's USDA monthly crop report will remind us how historically tight corn stocks or inventory are now. Plus, the March 30th planted acreage report may not be as bearish as traders expect.

Bean-

Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 415 t.m.t. of beans were sold last week down 38% from the week prior and 33% under our four week average. Key world bean buyer China, was in for 244 t.m.t. versus the two prior weeks of 250 and 250. So, there still active U.S. bean buyers as South American crops come to harvest. Brazil's crop should be 22% harvested by Sunday. We expect to lose some exports through April as Brazil's harvest and export season kicks in but Brazil looks to keep more grain home this year to meet their exploding bio-fuel industry and China continues to increase their world bean buying spree in 2007. China's imports through January are up over 40%. All this should keep U.S. bean exports running ahead of a year ago. Last year's weekly export sales number was 367 t.m.t. versus 415 on this report. Like corn, beans too ignored the report and busted down 25 cents on November futures as large quit funds pulled grain profits on a spiraling lower Asian and U.S. stock move Thursday, with follow through on Friday. November beans find support at 7.86 then 7.68 worst case scenario. The March 30 acreage report will pull buyers back to this market. Buy a break or dip with stops under 7.86 for a tight risk.

Wheat-

The short export week in part led to a weak weekly export sales number Thursday of 321 t.m.t. off 20% from the week prior and 39% below a weak four week average. No one wants the bottom of the storage bin on what is left from last year's low quality drought stricken crop as this year's winter crop. To break dormancy in March through April, may deliver a much more plentiful and quality wheat come our may harvest. Buyers will wait for direction as wheat greens up and weather has its effect. The entire winter wheat acres planted in this country have seen ample moisture the last 60 days. This only effects the top soil moisture to assist the crop as dormancy breaks. If we turn dry we are off to the races again on a supply side rally, especially since we went dormant in the fall with very poor crop quality ratings. We are getting close to wheat trading weather and its effect on crops and becoming independent from the influence of corn and beans. The first key producers to break dormancy will be Texas and Oklahoma in March with Colorado and then Kansas by late March early April all depending on temperature warm ups. Dormancy can break early or late depending on Mother Nature. The Kansas city winter wheat crop July futures have first support at 5.00 then major support at 4.90. Buy support and buy the May K.C. 4.90 put for protection.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

www.alaron.com

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