Reduced Special Crop Forecast for 2007

VANCOUVER - Feb 9/07 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada thinks specialty crop acreage will decline in Canada this year as increases for chickpeas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed are more than offset by decreases for dry peas, lentils and dry beans.

Agriculture Canada's forecasts are not based on surveys of growers and markets need to be careful about viewing them as an official statement on what seeded area and production is likely to be in 2007.

Explaining its forecast, the federal department said, "It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada, as soil moisture reserves are good in most areas."

This should allow total specialty crop output to reach 4.37 million metric tons (MT) in 2007, while total supply falls 13% to 5.23 million MT, as lower carry-in stocks compound the decrease in production. Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease due to the lower supply.

Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, decrease for chickpeas, and be the same for buckwheat. The main factors to watch are weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the growing and harvest periods in Canada.

Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing conditions in major producing regions, especially India, Pakistan, Mexico, United States, European Union, Turkey and Australia.

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