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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Feb 9/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.
March Soybeans closed 2 ¾ cents higher on Thursday but failed to make a new
high for the first time in the last 7 sessions. Traders sat the market was
supported by strong weekly export data and renewed strength in corn. Futures
volume was heavy. Estimated soybean volume was 111,132 futures and 15,107
options. Also supportive were strong CIF values at the US Gulf as icy
conditions on the Ill. River were slowing barge movement, forcing exporters
to ship by rail to meet nearby demand. Funds on Thursday bought
approximately 1,500 soybeans, 1,500 meal and even in oil. Traders say index
funds showed up to buy meal for the first time.
Today the USDA released their 2006/07 soybean ending stocks at 595 million
bushels, above the January forecast for 575 million. * USDA raised
estimate for Argentine soy production to 44.0 million mt from previous
outlook for 42.5 million. Outlook for Brazilian soy crop left unchanged at
56.0 million. Analysts say this report is not a big surprise and is
perceived as neutral to bearish for soybeans. Overnight the March soybean
contract gained 7 ¾ cents and early opening calls are coming in at 3 to 5
higher. Some outlooks for hotter and drier weather this summer in portions
of the U.S. Midwest supportive. Gains in crude oil seen supportive. Gains
limited by USDA forecast for increase in 2006/07 U.S. soy ending stocks and
a forecast increase in Argentine soy production.
eCBOT Overnight
Contract Last Net Change High Low
ZSH7 751^4 7^6 751^4 745^4
ZSK7 766^2 6^0 767^0 761^0
ZSN7 780^2 6^4 780^2 774^4
ZMH7 217.2 1.9 217.2 215.8
ZMK7 222.0 2.1 222.0 220.9
ZMN7 226.1 2.0 226.1 226.0
ZLH7 30.63 0.20 30.64 30.47
ZLK7 31.13 0.18 31.13 31.01
ZLN7 31.50 0.14 31.50 31.41
Opening Calls: higher 3 to 5; meal up 0.50; oil higher 5 to 10pts
Top News
**USDA Report**
**US Feb Soybean 06/07 Carryout: 0.595 bln bu. ; est. 0.57; Jan Rpt 0.575
**US Feb Soyoil 06/07 Carryout: 2.689 bln lbs. ; Jan Rpt 2.689
**US Feb Soymeal 06/07 Carryout: 300,000 T ; Jan Rpt 300,000 T
**Feb Brazil 06/07 Soybean Output: 56.0 mmt; Jan Rpt 56.0
**Feb China 06/07 Soybean Output: 16.2 mmt; Jan Rpt 16.2
**World 06/07 Soybeans Carryout: 57.43 mmt; Jan Rpt 56.15
**World 06/07 Soymeal Carryout: 4.57 mmt; Jan Rpt 4.07
**World 06/07 Soyoil Carryout: 3.32 mmt; Jan Rpt 3.28
-- Chinese soybean futures settled higher overnight on Dalian exchange
-- Malaysia benchmark April palm oil futures Friday rose 1.4%, other months
rose similar amount.
-- Malaysian palm oil product exports feelin January by 20% compared to
prior month.
Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track
Ill Riv Frt
Spot +47/
Feb +34/36 H +45/47 H +13/18 H +70/75 H
375
Mch +31/35 H +45/47 H +19/23 H +74/80 H
330
Apr +20/22 K +35/38 K +8/ H +70/75
K 320
May +22/25 K +36/39 K
+70/78 K 310
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro
Oil
Chicago -29 H -17 H -43 H
Toledo -30 H -20 H -45 H
Dec ILL -18 H - 2 H -15 H
-225 H
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/
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