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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Feb 8/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.
Another new contract high in Soybeans on Wednesday the sixth consecutive new
high in March soybeans in as many days. March closed 2 ¼ cents higher but 7
¼ cents off their highs in the lower portion of the trading range. Traders
say midday forecasts showed wetter weather n Argentina which some perceive
as bearish and could account for the break into the close. Traders say they
expect the “Goldman Roll” to continue today and expect index funds to add to
their net long position in soybeans this week. Volume on Wednesday was heavy
in Soybeans with an estimated 144,396 futures traded and 21,492 options.
Funds on Wednesday bought an estimated 500 to 1,000 meal, 500 oil and even
in Soybeans.
Weekly export sales came in above analyst expectations USDA said export
sales of U.S. soy last week totaled 803,800 mt. above estimates for 450,000
to 650,000 mt. export sales of U.S. soymeal last week totaled 136,600 mt.,
within estimates for 100,000 to 200,000 mt. export sales of U.S. soyoil last
week totaled 2,900 mt. below estimates for 5,000 to 10,000 mt. Brazilian
government pegs 2006/07 Brazilian soy crop a record 56.3 million mt., up
from January forecast for 54.9 million and above last year's 53.4 million.
Cash basis bids for soybeans in the Midwest late on Wednesday were mostly
steady with a 5 cents jump at a processor in Iowa looking for crushing
supplies. Icy conditions along Midwest rivers are slowing down
transportation of grain by barges. Overnight Chinese soybeans closed mixed
to weak and Meal mixed Malaysian Palm Oil Futures closed soft on talk of
decreased January production.
CBOT Overnight
Contract Last Net Change High Low
ZSH7 739^2 -1^6 742^0 737^2
ZSK7 755^0 -2^2 757^2 753^0
ZSN7 769^0 -1^4 771^0 766^6
ZMH7 212.9 -0.8 213.7 212.2
ZMK7 218.2 -0.3 218.4 216.8
ZMN7 221.7 -0.9 222.3 221.7
ZLH7 30.42 -0.01 30.54 30.33
ZLK7 30.90 -0.02 30.92 30.80
ZLN7 31.30 -0.03 31.31 31.30
Early Opening Calls: 1 to 2 lower
Top News
**USDA Soybeans 06/07 Export Sales Net: 803,200 mt; expected 450-650,000
**USDA Soybean Meal 06/07 Export Sales Net: 135,300 mt; expected 100-200,000
**USDA Soybean Oil 06/07 Export Sales Net: 2,900 mt; expected 5-10,000
**USDA Supply/Demand Report Friday Morning
-- Brazil's CONAB: 06/07 Soybean production expected to hit 56.3 mil tons,
+2.6% higher than January estimates, +5.4% higher than last year
-- Increased moisture in So.America increases chances of further Asian rust
outbreaks and delaying transportation - helping support beans acc, to
analysts.
-- Water scarcity as growing concern in China - gov't officials create
controls on corn-to-ethanol projects to limit water resources for fuel at
the expense of food.
-- Chinese soybean futures cautious in Thursday's trade, closed lower
overnight
-- Mayalsian palm oil futures lower Thursday, down 25 rupiah, a fall of
1.6%.
Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track
Ill Riv Frt
Spot +44/
Feb +30/34 H +41/45 H +12/18 H +70/75 H
375
Mch +30/36 H +43/45 H +18/23 H +74/80 H
330
Apr +19/25 K +35/38 K +10/ H +70/75 K
320
May +19/25 K +36/39 K
+70/78 K 310
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro
Oil
Chicago -29 H -17 H -43 H
Toledo -30 H -20 H -45 H
Dec ILL -18 H - 2 H -15 H
-225 H
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/
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