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Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Feb 2/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Well, the corn market sold off by the end of the day as locals and funds sold the market with little to no buy orders below the market. The March contract broke through the psychological $4.00 barrier and that brought about technical selling and the market did not recover before the close. Traders commented that the corn market rallied early in the day but couldn't find that extra push to keep going and it just sold off and the market was thin so there wasn't any buy orders resting below the market, especially at the end of the day. The funds were even on the day at 12:30, but by 1:15, the funds had sold 6,000 contracts. The export sales were strong again last week, but that type of number is expected and couldn't do much more than help the market open higher. Volatility remains very high as we saw a 12 cent range in the March contract, making it not only difficult to trade, but dangerous. Weather continues to be good for both the Midwest and So. America. eCBOT market was surprisingly quiet overnight after yesterday's sell off, closing app. unchanged. The market yesterday surprised some traders as they expected the $4.00 price to hold, but the sell off late in the day didn't bring out any buy orders. The $4.00 represents a psychological level for March corn and look for the market to try and get back above that level and if it doesn't, but the market could get ugly today, especially with today being Friday. A meteorologist out of Creighton University put out a report yesterday calling for a hot/dry summer across much of the corn growing areas in the US this summer. He did feel that Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana has sufficient sub-soil moisture, but the northern states will be greatly affected if it happens. This is a long range forecast, but as one trader said, everybody will be on edge because the world REALLY need the US corn crop to be very good. Look for the market today to chop around and look for direction from the funds. If the market goes lower, we may fun into sells stops and nobody can guess how many or how much is down there. This is still a demand market and there should be buys orders if the market does go lower, but today is Friday and traders may not want to step out and buy the market on a Friday. GO BEARS !!!!!!!!! eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZCH7 398^0 0^0 400^2 396^2 ZCK7 409^4 -0^2 411^6 408^2 ZCN7 416^2 -0^6 418^6 414^6 ZCU7 403^2 0^2 406^6 401^2 Early Opening Calls: steady Top News -- Analysts note light cash selling from producers this week, firming cash basis in corn - potential for spring weather problems to inspire rally. -- Semi Annual cattle inventory at 2pm CT Friday. Expectations for Total cattle & calves are near year ago levels. Herd expansion expectations are below year ago levels. -- S Korea & US back at beef negotiation table next week ahead of bilateral Free Trade Agreement negotiations the following week. S Korea still against linking FTA and beef imports. -- Univ of Illinois-Urbana/Champaign & Univ. of Cal. - Berkley are awarded bio fuel research grants from BP petroleum. -- Funds back to selling Corn late in the session Thursday. net sellers of 6,000 contracts. -- Goldman roll starts next week. -- Corn export sales near trade estimates at 31.4 mil.bu. taking year to date sales to 1.368 bil. bu. vs. 1.077 bil.bu. sold at this time last year -- US Jan Non-Farm Payrolls: +111k, expected = +149k, previous = +167k -- US Jan Unemployment rate: 4.6%; Consensus: 4.5%. -- Corn spreads: Rose 1,000 CZ/CN, Rand 500 CH/CZ, Caly 500 CK/CH, ADM 500 CN/CK. -- Volume was 217.7, with open interest up .803 to 1484.6 -- 6-10 day forecast shows below normal temps, normal to below precip Cash Markets -- CIF Corn : Feb. +32 to +34, LH Feb. +37 to +39 Mar. +40 to +45, Apr. +35 to +37, May +36 to +40, June +35 to +38 If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations, contact me directly. Jim Riley Linn Group 877-787-6278 jriley@linngroup.com www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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