Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - Jan 5/07 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

The demand for all meats in the first eleven months of 2006 was below a year earlier. Beef demand at the consumer level was down 2.4%, pork demand was down 3.7%, broiler demand was down 6.8% and turkey demand was down 2.2%.

The demand for fed cattle and hogs continue to be the bright spot with live fed cattle demand up 3.9% and live hog demand up 0.1% for January - November of 2006, compared to 2005.

Pork demand at the consumer level in September - November was flat with a year earlier, but beef demand at the consumer level was weaker for the first eleven months of 2001 through 2005. The beef demand at the consumer level was down 4.4% from 2005 in the 3-month period based on preliminary data. Live hog demand for September - November was up 2.8% from a year earlier and about the same as the same 3 months in 2004.

The Oklahoma City market was closed again this week for the New Years holiday. The fed cattle market held the strength of early week through the full week. The average weighted live price for the five-market area at $87.95 per cwt for the full week, up $2.64 per cwt compared to the full week the week before Christmas. The weighted average carcass price for the five-market area for the full week trade last week was up $4.45 per cwt at $139.40 per cwt.

For this week through Thursday the average price for live fed cattle at $88.04 per cwt, up $0.64 per cwt from a week earlier. The average weighted carcass price for this week through Thursday was up $2.60 per cwt at $141.75 per cwt.

Wholesale beef prices this Friday morning had Choice beef at $147.63 per cwt, up $4.13 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef prices Friday morning were up $4.70 per cwt from a week earlier at $133.45 per cwt.

Cow slaughter for the year through the week ending December 16 was up 10.9% from 12 months earlier. Dairy cow slaughter for this period was up 3.9% and beef cow slaughter was up 17.7% from a year earlier.

For the four weeks ending December 16, total cow slaughter was up 15.7%, dairy cow slaughter was up 7.8% and beef cow slaughter was up 22.5% from the same period in 2005.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 517 thousand head, down 1.5% from a year earlier.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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