for the World's Agriculture Industry Since 1988 |
![]() | ||
For full site access Lost Password? Customer Center Trade Directory Special Crops Beans Lentils Peas Chickpeas Birdseed Mustard & Other Spices & Herbs Dried Fruit & Nuts Supply-Demand The rest of Agriculture Bio-Energy Commentary Grain Oilseed Livestock Poultry Cotton & Wool Fresh Fruit & Vegetables Dried Fruit & Nuts Dairy Technology General Organic Just for Growers Cash Markets Futures Markets Weather Price Graphs Export Data Supply-Demand Subscribe Today! Privacy Policy Subscriber Agreement Ag Links Affiliates Add Headlines! To your website! |
Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Jan 3/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.
The corn market on Friday was higher with follow through buying from
Thursday and the strong export sales number. The March contract was almost
2 higher with the back months almost 5 cents higher. Some traders wanted to
say the rally was not only the strong export sales, but also some traders
not wanting to hold large short positions into the long holiday weekend in
case the funds were in buying on Monday and Tuesday night. Remember, there
was no trade on Tuesday during the day. Traders are still split on what the
investment funds will do this New Year, will they be buyers or sellers of
the corn market. The outlook in China remains very strong for corn, but we
will see more corn on the market for sale as prices go higher and the
government releasing stocks, albeit at higher prices than a couple of weeks
ago.
eCBOT market was unchanged on Monday night and then 8 cents lower on Tuesday
night. Traders this morning want to blame the sell off last night on profit
taking and traders trying to get ahead of what they feel will be investment
fund liquidation for the New Year. The sharp drop in wheat also contributed
to the sell off in corn. The weather forecast in So. America remains very
conducive with growing crops with analyst down there saying the crops look
good and the cooler weather will plenty of moisture should help production.
Traders this morning will be looking for the corn market to open lower,
possibly 8 lower, but they will look for support from users. The investment
funds remain the wild card as we should see them show their intentions, or
at least start to show their intentions, by the end of the week. Keep in
mind the markets the last 2 nights have been kind of weird and this 8 cent
break is on the back of only 20,000 contracts the last 2 nights. We will be
lower on the opening, but we will probably not know the extent of the break
until we start to see the orders in the trading pits.
eCBOT Overnight
Contract Last Change High Low
ZCH7 381^6 -8^4 388^2 379^4
ZCK7 388^6 -9^6 396^4 388^4
ZCN7 393^4 -9^0 401^6 393^4
ZCU7 380^0 -6^4 385^0 380^0
Early Opening Calls: 7 to 8 cents lower
Top News
** Tuesday's USDA Grain Inspections - Corn: 34,135,000 bu (-10.3% vs. last
week, +3.2% vs. last year)
** Tuesday's USDA Grain Inspections - Sorghum 2,289,000 bu
-- Grains faced a lot of pressure overnight - could be some traders believe
Funds will be sellers to start the new year and are trying to get a jump on
them? The volume of trade last night was not huge, 8,519 Corn contracts
traded.
-- Corn sales last week another big number 45.4 mil.bu. This takes year to
date sales to 1.173 bil.bu. That equals 53% of the USDA total projected
sales vs. the five year average for this date of 44 ½ %.
-- USDA reports as of Dec. 27 Corn loans stand at amazing 767 mil.bu. up 76
mil.bu for the week. The reason I say amazing is the fact that last year on
this date we had 504 mil.bu. under loan. Now we have 263 mil.more under loan
while Corn prices are trading $1.80 higher than a year ago and Corn
production was 347 mil.bu less???
-- The World experienced the sixth warmest year in history in 2006. China
had it’s hottest year since 1951.
-- Don’t forget this week the CFTC will start the new Supplemental report
that will show positions for the Index Funds.
-- The Commitment of Traders report with Options as of December 26 shows
Funds: Corn Long 297,398 up 3,165
-- 6-10 day forecast shows above normal temps, normal to above precip
-- Outside markets: metals higher, energies lower, dollar stronger against
major currencies
Cash Markets:
Cash markets did not see a lot of activity last Friday.
CIF Corn weak, hard to find bids. Jan. +?? to +25, LH Jan. +?? to +33, Feb.
+35 to +40, March +42 to +44, Apr. +40 to +43. May +40 to +43
PNW Corn trains steady off 2 Jan. +62 Feb. +68
NS Corn Jan. 15 Feb. -4 Mar. +2 Apr/Jul +5 Evansville CSX -10
Transportation: Barge freight steady STL 205 - 215 IL. River 270 285
Ohio 185 200
BN rail freight firmer Jan. +50 Feb. 150 Mar. 200
If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations,
contact me directly.
Jim Riley
Linn Group
877-787-6278
jriley@linngroup.com
www.linngroup.com/
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
|