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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Dec 11/06 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Soybean Update: Soybeans closed 6 cents lower on Friday ending the week 19 ¾ cents lower than the previous week and leaving a weekly gap from 667 to 675 ¾. Traders attribute the weakness generally to year end profit taking from funds. Volume was heavy with over 131,000 contracts trading and action was volatile. Traders say a firming dollar and weak wheat market pressured the market lower. Generally favorable weather conditions in South America are also pressuring the Soybean markets, although there has been increasing talk of hot weather and possible stress to crops. The USDA released their Supply and Demand report and the USDA pegged 2006/07 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 565 million bushels, below an average of analysts' estimates for 568 million and unchanged from USDA's forecast in November. Brazil grain analyst Agroconsult issued a new Brazil Soybean Production estimate of 56.1 mmt. vs. their October estimate of 54.1. Commitment of Traders report with Options as of December 5th. Shows funds long 45,057 soybeans off 2939, long 15,412 Meal off 14,774 and oil long 62,377 off 3,439. Chinese Soybean and oill futures closed higher, Meal lower. Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher. Traders in Kuala Lumpur said palm was firm amid bullish price forecasts. Funds on Friday sold 2,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Oil and 1,500 meal. Opening call 3 to 5 higher. eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZSF7 661^0 5^0 663^6 655^2 ZSH7 676^4 4^2 678^4 669^4 ZSK7 688^0 6^6 688^0 683^2 ZSN7 697^2 6^6 697^2 690^0 ZMF7 188.3 0.2 189.2 187.5 ZMH7 192.2 1.0 192.2 191.0 ZLZ6 28.48 0.20 28.48 28.42 ZLF7 28.86 0.23 28.86 28.62 ZLH7 29.31 0.23 29.31 29.05 Early Opening Calls: mixed to slightly higher, post report ==USDA December Crop Data== **US Dec. Soybean 06/07 Carryout: .565 bln bu. ; est. 0.57; Nov Rpt 0.565 **US Dec. Soymeal 06/07 Carryout: 300,000 T ; Nov Rpt 300,000 T **US Dec. Soyoil 06/07 Carryout: 2.729 bln lbs. ; Nov Rpt 2.688 **World 06/07 Soybeans Carryout: 55.72 mmt; Nov Rpt 55.22 **World 06/07 Soymeal Carryout: 5.13 mmt; Nov Rpt 5.13 **World 06/07 Soyoil Carryout: 3.19 mmt; Nov Rpt 2.97 **Dec. Brazil 06/07 Soybean Output: 56.0 mmt; Nov Rpt 56.0 **Dec. China 06/07 Soybean Output: 16.20 mmt; Nov Rpt 16.2 **Dec. Argentina 06/07 Soybean Output: 42.0 mmt; Nov Rpt 41.3 Top News -- Dalian China Soybean, and Oil futures closed higher, Meal a shade lower. Deliveries: Oil 309 Term put out 150 Meal 959 ADM stopped 141 -- Brazil grain analyst Agroconsult issued a new Brazil Soybean production estimate of 56.1 mmt. vs. their October estimate of 54.1 mmt. -- Commitment of Traders report with Options as of December 5th shows Funds: Soybeans Long 45,057 off 2,939 Meal Long 15,412 off 14,774 Oil Long 62,377 off 3,439 -- Funds stayed on the sell side Friday selling: 2,000 Soybeans; 1,000 Oil; 1,500 Meal. Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady. Dec. +58 to +60, LH Dec. +59 to +62, Jan. +60 to +64, Feb. +47 to +54. Mar. +44 to +47, Apr. +32 to ?? -- Processors: Decatur Even Danville -10 Bloomington -8 Gibson City -5 -- Board Crush Margins: Jan. 72.75 off .38 Mar. 68.27 off 1.17 To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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