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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Dec 6/06 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Soybean Update: Soybeans closed a nickel higher in the January contract but were unable to close the gap left by Mondays opening. Meal was the product leader ending $2.10 higher and oil unchanged. Funds were net buyers of Soybeans buying 2,000 soybeans, 1,200 meal and flat in oil. Traders say a firm dollar and a weak gold market are bearish for the Soybean complex as well as year end profit taking by investment funds. Overnight soybeans declined 6 ˝ cents in the January contract. Chinese soybeans, meal and oil closed mixed. Reports of barge basis values declining due to a sharp fall in barge freight. Traders say the barge market is being pressured by a lack of grain moving and recent rains improving river conditions allowing bigger barges to navigate the Mississippi river. Traders also not it is the end of the barge season and operators are preparing to remove barges from the upper Mississippi river. The USDA announced that China bought 120,000 MT. of US soybeans. Private exporters reported the sale of 120,000 MT. of U.S. soybeans to an unknown buyer for delivery this marketing year, the Agriculture Department said Wednesday. The U.S. Senate rejected $4.8 billion in disaster aid for U.S. farmers and ranchers on Tuesday, despite pleas that tens of thousands of producers could go broke without help. Advocates vowed to try again next year, when Democrats control Congress and lawmakers try to wrap up work on bills to fund most of the federal government. The White House has threatened to veto disaster aid. Opening calls: 5 to 7 lower. eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZSF7 657^6 -6^4 664^6 655^4 ZSH7 671^4 -6^2 678^0 669^0 ZSK7 680^0 -7^4 687^0 678^4 ZSN7 690^0 -5^6 695^6 688^6 ZMZ6 183.4 -0.9 184.0 183.4 ZMF7 186.5 -1.3 188.3 186.4 ZMH7 190.0 -0.9 191.0 189.8 ZLZ6 28.67 -0.25 28.71 28.67 ZLF7 29.10 -0.24 29.37 29.09 ZLH7 29.56 -0.18 29.67 29.55 Top News -- Export News: USDA reports private sale of 120,00 mt of US Soybeans sold to unknown destination -- Export News: Feed Assoc in S Korea bought 220,000 mt of South American soymeal, split into 4 purchase covering May thru July delivery. -- Chinese NGOIC: expectes 2007 Soybeans production up +0.7% to 15.6 mil tons -- Fund trade mixed Tuesday. Funds Bought 2,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Meal. Even Oil. -- Deliveries: Meal 975 thru 12/5/06 no stopper; Oil 2,074 thru 12/5/06 Term stopped 419 -- Soybean spreads: Term 800 SF/SH, Fimat 800 SH/SF, Ocon 700 SF/SN, ADM 400 SF/SH -- Supporters in the US Senate of farm disaster aid covering 2005 & 2006 losses fell short of bringing the aid forward and the matter will have to wait until the new Congress convenes in January 2007 -- CFTC announces in press release "Supplemental Report" to weekly Commitment of Traders beginning Jan. 2007. The new report will show aggregate futures and options positions of Noncommercial, Commercial and Index Traders in 12 selected agricultural commodities. Positions reported in the new “Index Traders” category will be drawn from both the current Noncommercial and the Commercial categories. Coming from the Noncommercial category will be positions of managed funds, pension funds and other institutional investors that generally seek exposure to commodity prices as an asset class in an unleveraged and passively-managed manner using a standardized commodity index. Coming from the Commercial category will be positions of entities whose trading predominantly reflects hedging of over-the-counter (OTC) transactions Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans up 1. Dec. +60 to +63, LH Dec. +61 to +64, Jan. +62 to +65, Feb. +50 to +55. Mar. +45 to +48, Apr. +32 to ?? -- Processors: Decatur -5 Danville -10 Bloomington -8 Gibson City -10 -- Board Crush Margins: Jan. 71.65 off .38 Mar. 69.37 off 1.39 To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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