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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Nov 14/06 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Soybean Update: Monday was a sell day in the Grain complex with soybeans in the Jan contract selling off and closing 5 cents lower with corn and wheat closing lower as well. Traders say the trade was not as active and turned lower with local selling hitting sell stops. Traders say that the soybean market is also being pressured by the tail end of the harvest session. Cash traders say that soybeans for shipment in the last half of November traded at 45 cent premium to the CBOT January contract. January basis values dropped slightly with deferred months holding steady. Traders said sales to China have been lacking as a recent rise in soybean prices has pressured crushing margins in China and other buyers are scattered. Oil World said on Tuesday China has made unusually large purchases of Argentine and U.S. soyoil recently, but may turn to palm oil because of rising soy prices. Monday The Commitment of Traders report was released showing funds long 42,379 Soybeans up 10,026 and Meal long 30,796 up 8,991 and Oil long 47,907 up 11,881. Fund trade on Monday was slow with funds selling 2,000 Soybeans, 2,000 Meal and bought 3,500 Oil. The weekly USDA crop progress report shows soybean harvest at 94% complete vs. 97% last year and 94% average for this time of year. The NOPA crush was released today NOPA said on Tuesday the U.S. soy crush in October totaled 155.0 million bushels, near trade estimates for 155.6 million and above the 151.0 million crushed in October 2005. Overnight Chinese Soybeans and Meal closed lower. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed mixed. eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZSX6 645^0 -1^4 647^4 645^0 ZSF7 660^4 3^0 661^6 656^4 ZSH7 672^4 3^2 673^4 668^4 ZSK7 679^0 1^2 682^2 677^0 ZSN7 689^0 2^0 690^2 686^2 ZMZ6 192.6 0.8 193.2 191.5 ZMF7 193.9 0.8 193.9 192.7 ZMH7 195.5 0.0 196.0 195.0 ZLZ6 27.90 -0.09 28.06 27.81 ZLF7 28.35 -0.01 28.39 28.20 ZLH7 28.59 -0.13 28.72 28.59 Early Opening Calls: steady/+1c Top News **NOPA Oct. Soy Crush: 154.984 mil bu, Sept = 137.320 mil bu; Average estimate 155.6 mil.bu. **NOPA Oct. Soymeal Exports: +72,767 tons to 490,852 **NOPA Oct. Soybean Oil Production: +9.4% to 1.7648 mil pounds **NOPA Oct. Soybean Oil Stocks: virtually unchanged to 2.6301 mil pounds -- Chinese Corn futures are closed higher this morning, Soybeans and Meal lower. -- The Commitment of Traders report with Options as of November 17 shows Funds Soybeans Long 42,379 up 10.026 Meal Long 30,796 up 8,991 Oil Long 47,907 up 11,881 -- The USDA weekly crop progress report shows Soybean harvest 94% complete vs. 97% last year and 94% average. -- Soybean spreads: Tenco 800 SF/SN, 500 SF/SH, JPM 500 SF/SH, ABN 300 SF/SX7 Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans off 3 to 5. Nov. +40 to +45, LH Nov. +43 to +53, Dec. +52 to +56, Jan. +56 to +63, Feb. +48 to +53. Mar. +40 to +48 -- Processors: Decatur -10F Danville -15 Bloomington -14F Gibson City -14F -- Board Crush Margins: Jan. 79.01 unch Mar. 71.52 off 4.40 To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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