Alaron Currency Comment

CHICAGO - Nov 14/06 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXU6):

The DX opened higher at 85.00, touched a morning Lo of 84.99 and rose as traders adjust to China's re-stating that they will not necessarily be 'dumping' dollars to diversify their $1 Trillion foreign reserve base.With a European business lobby sending a 'cautious' message to the ECB about future rate increases and lower exports, the DX rose to a morning Hi of 85.27, before sliding to 85.20 as we begin the afternoon session. Prices continued higher, topping out at a daily Hi of 85.28, before drifting to a close of 85.19, up 31 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' with momentum indicators turning off the 'over-sold' levels. If potential global rate increases are 'curtailed', then the DX will take less of beating. Diversification out of the DX will still be detrimental and its only a matter of time before it occurs. A higher open should find Resistance at 85.41 and 85.62, while an open below 85.06 may find Support at 84.85 and 84.50.

CANADIAN DOLLAR (CDZ6):

The CD opened lower at .8806, during a Canadian Banking Holiday and rose to a morning Hi at our secondary Support level of .8818, before pressure from a stronger DX and lower energy/metals prices sent the CD to a morning Lo of .8794. As we enter the afternoon session the CD is at .8798 and looking for support. As the DX rose during the afternoon, the CD retraced to a daily Lo at our Weekly secondary Support level of .8780, before bouncing to a close of .8793, down 55 tics. With 'rates' on hold, the CD will need help from the energy/metals complex to recover . A lower open may find Support at .8776 and .8759, while an open above .8797 shouold find Resistance at .8814 and .8835.

BRITISH POUND (BPZ6):

The BP opened lower at 1.9048, rose to a morning Hi of 1.9052 and retraced as disappointed traders take further profit/risk off the table on 'dovish' statements that the BoE may only need to raise rates 'one' more time through Q1 of 07'. Prices fell to a morning Lo at our Weekly initial Support level of 1.8999 and rebounded to 1.9027 as we enter the afternoon session. Prices drifted lower into the close as the DX made a daily Hi, sending the BP to a close of 1.9015, down 102 tics. The close below the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative', as momentum indicators weaken, suggesting a test of the 'swing' low of 1.8980 on 9/11. A lower open may find Support at 1.8992 and 1.8969, while an open above 1.9022 should find Resistance at 1.9045 and 1.9075.

Euro Currency (ECZ6):

The EC opened lower at 1.2862, touched a morning Hi of 1.2864 and retraced along with most other major foreign currencies to a morning Lo of 1.2823 as the DX rose. Comments from a major business lobby group concerned that ongoing rate increases will damage exports weighed on prices. Prices bounced to 1.2834 as we begin afternoon trading and ended the day at 1.2833, down 37 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' as momentum indicators turn lower, suggesting consolidation until future rate increase issues can be resolved. A lower open may find Support at 1.2813 and 1.2794, while an open above 1.2839 should find Resistance at 1.2858 and 1.2884.

. JAPANESE YEN (JYZ6):

The JY opened lower .8525 and hit a morning Hi of .8531, before comments from policy chief Nakagawa about being cautious on raising rates too soon, helped pressure the JY to a morning Lo of .8498. Prices bounced to .8505 as we start the afternoon session The JY retraced to a daily Lo of .8494 as the DX continued to weigh on prices, before ending the day at .8508, down 36 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' with momentum indicators weaker, suggesting a test of the recent 'swing' Lo of .8472 on 11/9. A lower open may find Support at .8491 and .8474, while an open above .8511 should find Resistance at .8528 and .8548.

Bob Kozak

Alaron Research Team

800.462.4691

bkozak@alaron.com

www.alaron.com

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