Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - Nov 10/06 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Most of last week fed cattle trade occurred by Thursday. Nearly 94 percent of the trade occurred by Thursday. The live fed weighted average negotiated price for all of last week at $88.75 per cwt was down $0.75 per cwt from a week earlier. The weighted average carcass price for negotiated cattle for all of last week at $138.15 per cwt was down about $0.75 per cwt from seven days earlier.

Feeder cattle and calves at Oklahoma City were $2-5.00 per cwt below a week earlier. The higher feed prices continue to take a toll on feeder prices.

The prices for medium and large frame number one steers by weight groups this week were: 400-500 pounds $114-$136 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $101.00-117.50 per cwt, 600-700 pound calves $101-106.00 per cwt, 700-800 pound calves $95.00-102.10 per cwt, 600-650 pound yearlings $106.25-108.00 per cwt, 750-800 pounds $100.00-103.25 per cwt and 850-950 pounds $95.00-102.50. Steer calves weighing 450 pounds at Oklahoma City are selling for about $125 per head less this week than the week ending February 11, 2006. Yearlings weighing 775 pounds this week were selling for about $48 per head less then they were the week ending February 11, 2006.

Wholesale beef prices this week for choice beef on Friday morning at $143.66 per cwt down $2.90 per cwt from seven days earlier. Select beef prices this Friday were down $2.78 per cwt than a week earlier at $131.62 per cwt.

Live fed cattle weighted average price for the five-market-area through Thursday at $85.69 per cwt down $3.21 per cwt from seven days earlier. Weighted average carcass prices were down $3.80 per cwt at $134.40 per cwt through Thursday compared to last week.

The negotiated cattle trade this week through Thursday was quite large at 133 thousand head. This compares with a negotiated trade about 156 thousand head for the first four days last week

USDA in the November crop report reduced the 2006 corn crop from 10.905 billion bushel in October to 10.745 billion bushels in November. Carryover stocks at the end of the 2006-2007 marketing year were reduced from 996 million bushels in October to 935 million bushels in November.

The important number is the mid-point estimate of the 2006-2007 corn marketing year price was increased from $2.60 per bushel to $3.00 per bushel in November for farm-level price. The 2005-06 price farm-level for corn was $2.00 per bushel. The futures price for corn at close Wednesday for the next year averaged $3.73 per bushel. The close Thursday night for corn for the next year was $3.64 average.

Cash bid price for corn at close Wednesday ranged from $3.07 to $3.65 per bushel in Missouri. The $3.65 price was at Scott City in southeast Missouri. The cash bid price in Missouri Thursday at close ranged from $3.00 per bushel to $3.58 per bushel.

The 2006 soybean crop was increased again in November to a record high production of 3.204 billion bushels. Even with the increase in production USDA increased the farm price for soybeans for the 2006-2007 marketing year by $0.50 per bushel to a mid-point estimate of $5.90 per bushel. Trade reports are that higher soybean price are needed to keep corn from bidding too many acres away from beans to corn in 2007.

The important number about beans for cattle produce is soybean meal price for the 2006-2007 marketing year was increased by $15 per ton to a mid-point estimate of $177.50 per ton for 48% meal, basis Decatur Illinois.

Cattle slaughter is not available this Friday because of a federal holiday.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.