Grimes and Plain Weekly Hog Outlook

CHICAGO - Nov 10/06 - SNS -- Following is a week ending hog market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

The weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week at 269.3 pounds per head were up 1.7 pounds from a week earlier but still 0.3 pound below a year earlier. The higher feed prices are probably the reason for the lighter weights than last year.

Feeder pig prices at United Tel-O-Auction this week were mixed compared to 2 weeks earlier but are holding quite well considering the price of feed. However, due to higher feed prices in part, feeder pig prices are substantially below a year earlier. This week 40-50 pound pigs at United sold from $86.50-92 per cwt and 60-70 pound pigs sold at $71.50. For the week ending November 13, 2005, 40-50 pound pigs at United sold at $112-124 per cwt and 60-70 pound at $108-110 per cwt.

Pork product value per cwt of carcass on Thursday afternoon were $65.32 per cwt down $2.16 per cwt from a week earlier. The major pork cuts prices in the Thursday report showed loins at $73.96 per cwt down $2.36 per cwt from a week earlier, Boston butts were down $0.71 per cwt at $71.62 per cwt, hams at $65.08 per cwt down $2.84 per cwt and bellies down $1.67 per cwt at $76.65 per cwt.

Live hog prices this Friday morning were $1-2.50 per cwt lower compared to 7 days earlier. The weighted average carcass price for the negotiated trade Friday morning was down $2.02-3.24 per cwt compared to the same period last week.

The top live price Friday morning for select markets were: Peoria $42.50 per cwt, St. Paul $45.00 per cwt, Sioux Falls and interior Missouri were unavailable. The weighted average negotiated carcass price Friday morning by geographic area was: western Cornbelt $60.35 per cwt, eastern Cornbelt $60.75, Iowa-Minnesota $60.27 per cwt and nation $60.54 per cwt.

USDA, in the November Crop report, reduced the 2006 corn crop from 10.905 billion bushels in October to 10.745 billion bushels in November. Carryover stocks at the end of the 2006-2007 marketing year were reduced from 996 Million bushels in October to 935 million bushels in November.

The important number is the midpoint estimate of the 2006-2007 corn market year price was increased from $2.60 per bushel in October to $3.00 per bushel in November for farm level price.

The futures price for corn for the next year closed Wednesday at an average price of $3.73 per bushel. The close Thursday showed an average of $3.64 per bushel for the next 12 months.

Cash bid prices for corn at close Wednesday ranged from $3.07 to $3.65 per bushel in Missouri. The high price was in the boot heel. The cash bid price in Missouri Thursday at close ranged from $3.00 per bushel to $3.58 per bushel.

The 2006 soybean crop was increased again in November to a record high production of 3.204 billion bushels. Even with the increase in production, USDA increased the farm price for soybeans for the 2006-2007 marketing year by $0.50 per bushel to $5.90. Trade reports are that higher soybean prices are needed even with the record supply to keep corn from bidding too many acres away from beans next year.

The important number as to beans for hog producers is soybean meal price which USDA increased by $15.00 per ton to $177.50 for the 2006-2007 market year for 48% meal at Decatur Illinois.

Hog slaughter is not available this Friday because of a federal holiday.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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