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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Nov 7/06 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.
Soybean Update: Mondays Soybean trade was quiet closing unchanged in the
January contract. The market closed firm after a range bound day in a 9 cent
range. Traders say market activity on Monday was the slowest in weeks. Funds
were quiet as they were net buyers of 600 Soybeans, 1,800 Meal and sold 500
Oil.
The USDA weekly crop progress report released yesterday after the close
shows the soybean harvest at 90% complete vs. 95% last year and a 91%
average. Brazil grain analyst Celeres estimates 32% of the Brazil Soybean
crop is planted vs. 22% last week and 28% last year. Oilseed analysts Oil
World reports that Argentine farmers are likely to plant more soybeans this
year due to a rally in soybean prices on the world market. Argentine
soybean plantings have more than doubled during the past 10 years they
report. Brazil bean basis offers off 10 cents to 60 over for old crop with
new crop trading down to 7 over. This is 60 cents less than US beans for
next spring. Cash traders report China bean buying has slowed on
deteriorated crushing margins and huge program out of the US over the last 3
weeks. Their interest has moved to vegoil with very active buying over the
last several weeks favoring palm oil and So American soy oil. Overnight
Malaysian Palm oil futures closed lower. Chinese soybean futures closed
mixed, Meal lower, Oil higher.
ECBOT Overnight
Contract Last Net Change High Low
ZSX6 647^4 -1^6 649^4 647^0
ZSF7 660^2 -2^4 664^0 659^6
ZSH7 673^0 -1^4 675^2 672^0
ZSK7 680^2 -2^2 683^0 680^2
ZSN7 689^0 -0^4 689^4 687^4
ZMZ6 196.5 0.0 197.3 195.5
ZMF7 196.0 -0.4 197.1 195.7
ZMH7 198.1 -0.3 199.5 198.1
ZLZ6 27.45 -0.09 27.56 27.43
ZLF7 27.79 -0.10 27.81 27.79
ZLH7 28.11 -0.14 28.11 28.11
Early Opening Calls: 1 to 2 cents lower
Top News
-- The USDA progress report shows Soybean harvest 90% vs. 95% last year and
91% average.
-- Brazil grain analyst Celeres estimates 32% of the Brazil Soybean crop is
planted vs. 22% last week and 28% last year.
-- Brazil bean export registrations for old crop up to 26.9 MMT compared to
23.1 last year
-- Soybean spreads: Term 600 SX/SF, JPM 500 SF/SX, USA 300 SF/SX, Tenco 200
SX/SF
-- Barge freight steady weak: STL. 410 - 430 IL. River 480 - 500 Ohio
400 - 450
-- CBOT Nov soybean deliveries: 1,674 contracts
-- Funds were not big players Monday. Funds bought 600 Soybeans; 1,800 Meal.
And they sold 500 Oil.
Cash Markets
Bn Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track
12Pro ILL RIV FRT
Nov +49/51 F +62/64 Z +38/43 Z +60/70
Z 490
Dec +58/60 F +63/66 Z +40/45 Z +62/72 Z
470
Jan +62/64 F +55/57 H +35/ H +55/
H 490
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil
Chicago -28 F -6 Z -45 Z
Toledo -27 F -18 Z -45 Z
Dec ILL -5 F +10 Z -6 Z -25 Z
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/
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