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Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Nov 1/06 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Corn Update: The corn market sold off again for the second day in a row as we continued to see more profit taking on the record long futures positions. Corn has been due at least a temporary sell of after the market reached almost 10 year highs. Selling pressure from harvest and also crude oil contributed to the sell off. The big sell off in crude oil the last 2 days contributed to the down move in corn because of the pressure on ethanol. Remember, much of the wild speculation in corn is based on the profitability of ethanol and its massive expansion, and if that is threatened by lower crude oil prices, it will bring corn prices down with it. Funds sold 5,000 contracts and the volume was over 300,000. Export sales overnight were strong, but that couldn't stop the sell off. Corn was also following the big break in wheat, but remember corn is a different animal than wheat and there are some users that have not priced their needs so far this year. The bears will continue to talk about lower energy prices hurting ethanol and record longs will have to sell if the flat price goes lower. eCBOT market rebounded slightly overnight on light volume with the Dec closing 2 cents higher. The corn market broke the last 2 days on renewed profit taking from the record long positions amid lower energy markets. Traders will look forward to export sales to be released tomorrow morning to see if they keep up the pace that we have seen this year. The corn market will be tested down at these levels to see if we have user will come in and support the market on this break. Some traders want to say the bears rallying cry that ethanol profitability is going away may be a little premature because of increased productivity allowing more ethanol per bushel and the sale of DDG for feed adding value even if prices decline slightly. So. Korea has announced they will cover their corn purchases through April by the end of the year and would like to buy Chinese corn because of higher CBOT prices, but China continues to pull back exports and many analysts agree they will not be exporting corn this year. 2 leading grain analysts will be releasing Nov. USDA estimates this afternoon and tomorrow morning. Expect the corn market to find support today on fund buying and user pricing. eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZCZ6 323^0 2^2 324^0 320^4 ZCH7 337^0 2^2 338^0 334^4 ZCK7 343^2 1^6 344^2 341^0 ZCN7 349^6 1^0 351^0 347^4 Early Opening Calls: 1-2 higher Top News -- The Brazil government announced they will raise the Ethanol mix in the country's gasoline from 20% to 23%. This will up the country's use by 70 to 75 mil. liters. -- Renewable Fuels assoc. released stats showing Aug. ethanol production totaled 329,000 bpd, well ahead of the 69,000 bpd seen in Aug 2005. Meanwhile, Jan-Aug production averaged 305,000 bpd. Ethanol Stocks total 384.7 mln gal. -- Traders in South Korea say they will likely cover April thru June Corn shipments by the end of the year. S Korea says it would like to buy more corn from China but selling offers from China have decreased sharply since last week. -- Funds all on the Sell side Tuesday. Funds sold 4,500 Corn. -- Open interest in Corn down 8,519 Tuesday. -- Corn spreads: JPM 1,500 CZ/CH, ABN 1,000 CZ/CH, Rose 700 CZ/CH, Fimat 500 CZ/CH, Fimat 3,000 CH/CZ, Fortis 1,000 CH/CZ, Caly 1,000 CH/CZ, Tenco 500 CZ/CH. -- 6-10 day forecast shows normal to above temps and precip -- Volume was 306.8 with open interest down 8.5 to 1374.9 -- Outside markets: metals very strong, energies mixed, dollar slightly stronger against most currencies Cash Markets -- CIF Corn up 1 to 2 . Nov. +60 to +61, Dec. +63 to +65, LH Dec. +64 to +68, Jan. +54 to +58, Feb. +54 to +57, March +54 to +58, Apr. +48 to +51. TREND: Corn will go down more grudgingly than wheat. Look for support to develop only 15 to 20 cents off the highs. Carries are starting to widen as the index fund roll is expected to get more serious. Same is happening in wheat. The volatility in wheat and corn continues to fly out the window as trade sees the selling of puts and calls the cure for missing a flat price trade. If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations, contact me directly. Jim Riley Linn Group 877-787-6278 jriley@linngroup.com www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. 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