Saskatchewan Optimistic About Final Yields

VANCOUVER - Oct 25/06 - SNS -- Crop estimates by Saskatchewan Agriculture are moving the wrong direction from the perspective of many market participants, who do not expect Statistics Canada to follow the provincial lead and increase yield forecasts when it releases its final 2006 production report on December 7.

Based on information provided by its 280 crop reporters, the provincial government said it believes yields of all specialty crops grown there are higher than those contained in Statistics Canada's October 5 crop report.

Leaving estimates unchanged for Manitoba and Alberta, this has the effect of boosting total specialty crop output in western Canada 191,000 metric tons (MT) to 4.497 million MT.

From the market's perspective, the most significant differences of opinion are for canaryseed and field peas. If Saskatchewan Agriculture is correct, output of canaryseed is closer to 139,100 MT than the 119,400 MT suggested by Statistics Canada; while the field pea harvest could be 149,000 MT larger at 2.901 million MT.

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