Canada's Special Crop Harvest Down 19%

VANCOUVER - Oct 13/06 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada reckons total specialty crop production in Canada is now down 19% from last year at an estimated 4.3 million metric tons (MT).

Estimated yields are lower than trend for dry peas, lentils, chickpeas mustard seed, canary seed and buckwheat, but higher for dry beans and sunflower seed. Crop abandonment is estimated to be lower than normal.

Harvest progress is ahead of 2005-06 and ahead of normal, with combining generally complete, except for dry beans in eastern Canada and canary seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat in western Canada.

Quality is expected to be, in general, normal to higher than normal. The risk of frost damage is low for unharvested fields due to the advanced stage of development.

Total supply is estimated to decrease by 13% to 5.85 million MT, as higher carry-in stocks partly offset the decrease in production. Exports and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease because of the lower supply, while domestic use increases slightly.

Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, decrease for dry beans and chickpeas, and be the same for buckwheat.

The stronger Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, is expected to have the largest impact on dry bean and sunflower seed prices, as Canadian prices for these crops are directly related to US prices.

Agriculture Canada says the main factors to watch are Canadian weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the remainder of the harvest period. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing and harvest conditions in other major producing countries, especially the United States, Australia, India and Mexico.

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