Smaller Supply of Canadian Specialties

VANCOUVER - Sep 22/06 - SNS -- Canada's smaller specialty crop harvest is being partly offset by larger than normal ending stocks, with the result available supplies of all specialty crops will not fall as quickly as the drop in size of the crop, notes Agriculture Canada in its latest review of the sector.

"Total Canadian production of pulse and special crops is estimated to decrease by 17%, from 2005-06, to 4.43 million metric tons (MT). . . Total supply is estimated to decrease by 11% to 5.98 million MT, as higher carry-in stocks offset some of the decrease in production."

Exports and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease because of the lower supply, while domestic use increases. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, decrease for dry beans and chickpeas, and be the same for buckwheat.

The stronger Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, is expected to have the largest impact on dry bean and sunflower seed prices, as Canadian prices for these crops are directly related to US prices.

The main factors to watch are Canadian weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the remainder of the harvest period. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing and harvest conditions in the major producing regions, especially the United States, Australia, India and Mexico.

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